Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2178 P/2011 P1 (McNaught)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 113 observations 2011 Aug. 1 to Nov. 23. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.68 arc second. Approximate computation shows the comet has passed 0.00082 AU from Jupiter on 2010 Dec. 5.0 UT. So that the following past orbit in 2005 is still uncertainty. Also the comet still locates 0.69 AU from Jupiter on 2011 Dec. 25, so that there are some uncertainties in the prediction of next return Epoch = 2011 Dec. 25.0 TT T = 2010 July 18.87970 +/- 0.18969 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 343.65706 +/- 0.02620 Node = 8.39636 +/- 0.00182 (2000.0) Inc. = 5.96091 +/- 0.00036 q = 4.9645697 +/- 0.0006712 AU e = 0.3489797 +/- 0.0002099 a = 7.6258293 +/- 0.0003496 AU n' = 0.04680297 +/- 0.00000322 P = 21.059 +/- 0.0014480 years (+/- 0.53 day) [ T = 2005 May 5.05383 TT Epoch = 2005 Apr. 20.0 TT Peri. = 335.87754 e = 0.0623827 Node = 200.57245 (2000.0) a = 4.6846858 AU Inc. = 8.07860 n'= 0.09720383 q = 4.3924423 AU P = 10.140 years ] The predicted orbit for the 2030 return is as follows: T = 2030 Dec. 23.31854 TT Epoch = 2030 Dec. 5.0 TT Peri. = 348.64585 e = 0.3280183 Node = 4.17132 (2000.0) a = 7.5015935 AU Inc. = 5.64727 n'= 0.04797045 q = 5.0409337 AU P = 20.546 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2011/ 110826 H06 0.1+ 0.2+ 111026 372 0.5+ 1.1+ 110801 E12 0.1+ 1.3- 110826 H06 0.2- 0.2+ 111028 703 0.1- 0.7- 110801 E12 0.4+ 0.4+ 110827 H06 0.4+ 0.1+ 111028 703 0.5- 0.3- 110801 E12 0.5+ 0.0 110827 H06 0.4- 0.6+ 111028 703 1.3- 1.5- 110801 E12 0.8- 1.1- 110827 215 0.7- 0.0 111028 703 1.0- 0.4- 110801 E12 0.4- 1.8- 110827 215 0.5- 0.4- 111031 372 0.6+ 0.1- 110802 H06 0.1+ 0.1- 110827 215 0.4- 0.8- 111031 372 1.1+ 0.0 110802 H06 0.0 0.2+ 110828 H06 0.6- 0.8- 111031 372 1.0+ 0.0 110802 H06 0.6- 0.5+ 110828 H06 0.4- 0.7- 111031 C10 0.6+ 0.3+ 110802 E12 0.5+ 0.1+ 110828 H06 0.2- 0.5- 111031 C10 0.4- 0.2+ 110803 470 0.3+ 1.0+ 110829 372 1.1+ 0.7+ 111031 C10 0.3- 0.1- 110803 470 0.8+ 0.5- 110829 372 1.5+ 0.8+ 111101 704 0.5+ 1.7- 110803 E12 0.3+ 0.0 110920 C32 1.8+ 1.5+ 111101 704 1.0+ 1.1+ 110803 E12 0.2+ 0.1- 110920 C32 0.0 0.1+ 111101 704 1.3+ 0.7+ 110804 H21 (2.7- 1.9-) 110920 C32 0.0 0.4+ 111101 704 1.3- 1.7- 110804 H21 (3.3- 0.6-) 110924 J01 0.4+ 0.7- 111102 691 0.3- 0.3+ 110804 H21 (2.7- 1.3-) 110924 J01 0.1+ 0.7- 111102 691 0.7- 0.4- 110805 F65 0.0 0.4+ 110924 J01 0.6+ 0.1+ 111102 691 1.0- 0.3+ 110805 F65 0.0 0.5+ 110925 H06 0.5+ 0.5+ 111102 D90 0.2- 0.3- 110806 157 0.7+ 1.2+ 110925 H06 0.1- 0.2+ 111102 D90 0.4+ 0.6- 110806 157 0.5+ 0.8+ 111001 B51 (0.3- 3.8+) 111102 D90 1.2+ 0.7- 110807 I89 0.2- 0.3- 111001 B51 1.0- 0.4- 111115 C10 1.0- 0.7- 110807 I89 0.3- 0.1+ 111003 130 0.2- 0.4- 111115 C10 0.6+ 0.3+ 110807 H06 0.2+ 0.2- 111003 130 0.5- 0.2- 111116 C10 1.1- 0.1+ 110807 H06 0.2- 0.4+ 111003 130 0.5- 0.2- 111116 B51 0.3+ 0.9- 110808 H06 0.4- 0.4+ 111005 F65 0.9+ 0.0 111116 C10 1.3+ 0.2+ 110808 H06 0.3- 0.6+ 111005 F65 0.8+ 0.6- 111116 B51 1.8- 1.8+ 110808 H06 0.4- 0.8+ 111016 691 0.4- 0.8- 111119 C10 0.3- 1.3- 110809 H06 0.0 0.1+ 111016 691 0.1- 0.8+ 111119 C32 0.1- 0.3+ 110809 H06 0.0 0.5- 111016 691 0.2- 0.7- 111119 C32 0.2+ 0.2+ 110809 E12 0.0 0.0 111022 C32 (2.0+ 2.4+) 111119 C32 0.6- 0.4+ 110810 A77 0.8- 0.7- 111022 C32 0.7+ 1.6+ 111119 C32 0.1+ 0.8+ 110810 A77 0.1+ 0.4+ 111022 215 0.5- 0.4+ 111119 C10 (1.2- 2.1-) 110810 C10 0.4- 1.0+ 111022 215 0.3+ 1.7- 111122 372 0.0 0.8- 110810 A77 0.2+ 0.1+ 111022 C10 0.6- 0.2- 111122 372 0.0 0.7+ 110810 C10 0.9- 0.4+ 111022 C10 0.7- 0.3- 111122 372 0.7+ 1.4+ 110811 204 0.3- 0.1+ 111022 C10 0.3+ 0.8+ 111123 704 (2.0+ 0.7-) 110811 204 0.0 0.5- 111024 C10 0.0 0.4+ 111123 704 1.7+ 0.5+ 110825 F65 0.2+ 0.5- 111024 C10 0.2- 0.6+ 111123 704 0.9- 0.8+ 110825 F65 0.3+ 0.1- 111024 C10 0.3- 0.1- 110825 F65 0.0 0.1- 111026 372 0.1- 0.3+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams Syuichi Nakano 2011 Nov. 27