Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2744 181P/Shoemaker-Levy 6
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 76 observations 1991 to 2014, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 1.54 arc seconds. The residuals for 2014 observations were -1.22 deg (R. A.) and -0.97 deg (Delc.) from the prediction in NK 2147 (= HICQ 2013) with the delta-T correction = +2.6 days! On the other hand, the prediction from an orbit in NK 1377 (= YC 2532) was T = 2014 June 10.37 TT with delta-T correction = -0.05 day. See the previous orbits in NK 635, NK 944, NK 1377 and NK 2147. Epoch = 2014 May 23.0 TT T = 2014 June 10.32006 +/- 0.00095 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 333.79025 +/- 0.00095 Node = 37.68174 +/- 0.00009 (2000.0) Inc. = 16.98160 +/- 0.00010 q = 1.1235643 +/- 0.0000017 AU e = 0.7073248 +/- 0.0000022 a = 3.8389461 +/- 0.0000077 AU n' = 0.13103462 +/- 0.00000040 P = 7.522 +/- 0.0000227 years A1 = -0.136 +/- 0.081 A2 = -0.00859 +/- 0.00013 T = 1991 Oct. 13.85976 TT Epoch = 1991 Oct. 31.0 TT Peri. = 333.12881 e = 0.7059231 Node = 37.93051 (2000.0) a = 3.8506439 AU Inc. = 16.85719 n'= 0.13043797 q = 1.1323855 AU P = 7.556 years [ T = 1999 May 6.39145 TT Epoch = 1999 May 22.0 TT Peri. = 333.36391 e = 0.7055476 Node = 37.83365 (2000.0) a = 3.8528671 AU Inc. = 16.89458 n'= 0.13032509 q = 1.1344861 AU P = 7.563 years ] T = 2006 Nov. 24.99018 TT Epoch = 2006 Dec. 11.0 TT Peri. = 333.55440 e = 0.7066534 Node = 37.87250 (2000.0) a = 3.8436311 AU Inc. = 16.92703 n'= 0.13079512 q = 1.1275159 AU P = 7.536 years The predicted orbit for the 2022 return is as follows: T = 2022 Jan. 8.74900 TT Epoch = 2022 Jan. 21.0 TT Peri. = 336.22778 e = 0.7006031 Node = 35.40610 (2000.0) a = 3.8738835 AU Inc. = 17.48574 n'= 0.12926598 q = 1.1598285 AU P = 7.625 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1991/ 911201 104 0.1- 2.5+ 061221 844 (0.3+ 4.0+) 911103 675 0.9+ 2.5+ 911203 056 (0.2+ 7.9+) 061221 844 (1.0- 4.4+) 911103 675 (5.5+ 5.4-) 911203 104 2.2- 1.2+ 061221 844 (1.2- 4.1+) 911103 675 (4.5+ 1.3+) 911203 104 (3.7- 4.1-) 061221 844 (0.6+ 2.6+) 911103 675 (1.1+ 9.3-) 911204 372 2.5- 2.0+ 061221 844 (0.4+ 3.2+) 911106 675 2.1+ 0.6+ 911209 411 (1.4- 3.3+) 061221 G96 1.9- 1.0+ 911106 675 (1.0+ 8.5-) 911209 411 0.1+ 0.8+ 061221 699 2.2- 1.5+ 911106 675 (4.1+ 3.1+) 911209 411 0.0 0.1+ 061221 G96 0.1- 1.5+ 911106 675 (0.6+ 5.2-) 911209 372 2.7- 0.1+ 061221 G96 1.1+ 1.2+ 911107 675 (4.0+ 3.2-) 911209 372 2.5- 0.5- 061221 G96 0.7+ 1.5+ 911107 675 (3.7+ 3.4-) 911213 372 0.4+ 0.7+ 061221 699 0.5+ 1.9+ 911109 675 1.6+ 2.8- 1992/ 061221 699 2.2+ 0.1- 911109 675 2.1+ 1.7- 920108 801 1.4+ 1.9+ 061222 704 (3.4- 2.3+) 911110 675 2.1+ 2.3- 920108 801 1.5+ 1.6+ 061222 704 (2.7- 1.6+) 911110 675 (1.3- 10.4-) 2006/ 061222 704 0.9+ 0.2+ 911111 373 1.3+ 2.1- 061026 E12 0.6- 1.5+ 061222 704 0.3- 1.9+ 911111 373 0.6+ 0.5- 061026 E12 1.0- 1.6+ 061222 704 1.5- 1.5+ 911111 896 (0.1- 4.9+) 061027 E12 0.6- 1.4+ 061223 349 2.3- 1.2+ 911111 896 (1.6+ 3.8-) 061027 E12 0.6- 1.7+ 061223 349 (2.5- 1.3+) 911112 402 (0.2+ 4.2-) 061027 474 (1.2- 2.7+) 061223 349 2.2- 0.7+ 911112 402 (5.9+ 1.1+) 061027 474 0.9- 1.9+ 061223 204 (3.6- 0.9+) 911112 897 (5.3+ 5.5-) 061027 474 1.5- 2.4+ 061223 204 (3.3- 1.2+) 911112 897 3.1+ 0.5+ 061027 474 0.4+ 1.9- 061229 349 0.6- 0.0 911112 897 2.3- 3.3- 061117 415 (1.3- 2.8+) 061229 349 0.2- 0.4+ 911113 675 1.4+ 1.3- 061117 415 (0.1- 3.0+) 2007/ 911113 411 2.1+ 1.2+ 061123 E12 0.5- 1.8+ 070113 130 1.8- 0.4- 911113 372 (0.1- 3.9-) 061123 E12 (1.2+ 3.0+) 070113 130 (3.5- 0.7+) 911113 372 0.9+ 3.1- 061123 E12 1.9- 1.4+ 070113 204 (4.1- 0.3+) 911113 411 1.2+ 2.3- 061123 E12 0.0 0.6+ 070113 204 (3.4- 1.2+) 911125 372 (6.6+ 2.6+) 061125 349 0.3- 1.2+ 070114 349 (3.3- 0.3-) 911125 411 0.7+ 1.6- 061125 349 0.9- 1.2+ 070114 349 1.9- 0.9+ 911125 411 2.2- 0.8- 061125 349 0.8- 0.9+ 070116 699 (3.5- 2.7+) 911125 411 1.3+ 0.6+ 061126 215 (0.8- 2.7+) 070116 699 (3.9- 1.8+) 911125 411 0.3+ 0.2- 061202 349 (3.6- 2.1+) 070116 699 2.2- 0.1+ 911125 411 0.8+ 2.2- 061202 349 (2.9- 2.2+) 070116 703 (3.0- 1.3+) 911126 046 (7.5- 9.5+) 061202 349 (3.5- 1.6+) 070116 703 (4.2- 2.0+) 911126 046 (5.4- 0.0 ) 061213 704 2.3- 2.1+ 070116 703 (2.7- 0.7-) 911127 056 (2.9+ 5.3-) 061213 704 (1.0- 2.5+) 070116 703 (4.5- 1.4+) 911127 046 (4.4- 4.4-) 061213 704 1.2- 1.1+ 070127 204 2.3- 1.1+ 911127 046 (8.3- 4.5-) 061213 704 (1.0- 2.9+) 070127 204 (3.5- 2.0+) 911127 056 (6.2+ 9.0+) 061213 704 0.8- 2.4+ 2014/ 911127 104 2.1- 2.3+ 061213 215 (3.3- 0.6+) 140602 Q62 1.3- 1.4+ 911127 104 1.6+ 2.4+ 061214 704 (3.1- 2.3+) 140602 Q62 1.0- 0.1+ 911128 657 0.3+ 0.1+ 061214 704 0.9- 1.8+ 140613 W96 (3.5- 1.9+) 911128 657 0.2- 0.0 061214 704 (1.8- 2.7+) 140613 W96 (7.6- 4.5+) 911129 540 1.3- 1.1+ 061214 704 (1.4- 3.0+) 140614 W96 (3.3- 1.3+) 911129 056 (7.0- 2.7+) 061214 704 2.1- 1.7+ 140614 W96 2.1- 2.3+ 911129 540 2.9- 2.0- 061219 844 (1.0- 4.4+) 140615 W96 1.6+ 0.1+ 911129 056 (1.5- 5.4-) 061219 844 (2.3- 3.3+) 140615 W96 0.0 0.3- 911201 104 2.5- 0.3- 061219 844 (7.9+ 3.6+) ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2014 July 9