Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2891 P/McNaught (2004 R1 = 2015 HC10)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 66 observations 2004 to 2015. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.61 arc second. The residuals of recovery observations were +3.48 deg for R. A. and -2.10 deg for Decl. from the prediction in NK 1143 (= HICQ 2014) with the delta-T correction = -4.98 days. Epoch = 2015 Aug. 6.0 TT T = 2015 Aug. 7.31152 +/- 0.00083 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 0.74298 +/- 0.00030 Node = 295.94931 +/- 0.00025 (2000.0) Inc. = 4.89976 +/- 0.00003 q = 0.9770131 +/- 0.0000009 AU e = 0.6845453 +/- 0.0000002 a = 3.0971586 +/- 0.0000012 AU n' = 0.18082518 +/- 0.00000010 P = 5.451 +/- 0.0000031 years T = 2004 Aug. 30.20494 TT Epoch = 2004 Aug. 23.0 TT Peri. = 0.59682 e = 0.6819224 Node = 296.01311 (2000.0) a = 3.1075406 AU Inc. = 4.88990 n'= 0.17991976 q = 0.9884389 AU P = 5.478 years [ T = 2010 Feb. 21.13189 TT Epoch = 2010 Feb. 13.0 TT Peri. = 0.68353 e = 0.6825047 Node = 295.96962 (2000.0) a = 3.1044631 AU Inc. = 4.89323 n'= 0.18018736 q = 0.9856526 AU P = 5.470 years ] The predicted orbit for the 2021 return is as follows: T = 2021 Jan. 17.14324 TT Epoch = 2021 Jan. 26.0 TT Peri. = 0.77644 e = 0.6857653 Node = 295.93014 (2000.0) a = 3.0941220 AU Inc. = 4.90893 n'= 0.18109144 q = 0.9722804 AU P = 5.443 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2004/ 040911 651 0.5+ 0.1- 150418 W84 0.2+ 0.2- 040902 E12 1.5- 0.2+ 040913 360 0.6- 0.4+ 150418 W84 0.2+ 0.1- 040902 E12 0.0 0.5+ 040913 360 0.8+ 0.2+ 150418 W84 0.3+ 0.2- 040902 E12 1.1+ 0.2- 040913 360 0.5- 0.4- 150418 W84 0.2+ 0.1- 040902 E12 0.3- 0.1+ 040914 651 1.4+ 0.4+ 150419 W84 0.1- 0.1- 040904 413 0.3+ 0.6- 040914 651 0.4+ 1.6- 150419 W84 0.1+ 0.0 040904 413 0.7+ 0.1- 040916 E12 1.7- 1.3+ 150420 W84 0.1- 0.1- 040904 413 1.0- 0.0 040916 E12 1.4- 0.4- 150420 W84 0.1+ 0.1- 040904 413 0.6- 0.3- 040916 E12 0.6+ 0.0 150420 291 0.3- 0.1+ 040905 413 0.5- 0.2- 040916 E12 1.0- 0.8+ 150420 291 0.1- 0.4+ 040905 413 0.1- 0.2+ 040916 E12 (2.6+ 0.8-) 150420 291 0.3- 0.2+ 040906 673 0.9+ 0.6- 040916 E12 (2.6+ 0.9-) 150420 W84 0.2+ 0.1+ 040906 673 0.8+ 0.8- 040916 E12 (3.0+ 0.2+) 150420 W84 0.1+ 0.1+ 040906 673 1.5- 0.2- 040916 E12 (2.9+ 0.3-) 150420 W84 0.2+ 0.1- 040906 673 0.3+ 0.1+ 040917 J87 1.3+ 0.2- 150420 W84 0.4+ 0.0 040906 673 0.0 0.2+ 040917 J87 1.0+ 1.0+ 150421 W84 0.6+ 0.0 040906 673 0.1+ 0.1- 040918 587 0.4- 0.3+ 150421 291 0.1+ 0.0 040906 E14 1.5+ 0.1- 040918 587 1.4+ 0.6+ 150421 291 1.5- 0.0 040906 E14 0.3- 1.2- 040918 587 1.6- 0.8+ 150421 291 0.9- 0.4+ 040906 E14 0.3+ 0.4- 041017 587 (4.0+ 0.2+) 150421 W84 0.0 0.3- 040906 E14 0.1- 0.3- 041017 587 (4.1+ 0.4-) 150421 W84 0.3+ 0.1- 040906 413 0.2- 0.2- 041106 413 0.2+ 0.2- 150421 W84 0.1+ 0.0 040906 413 0.2- 0.2- 041107 413 0.2- 0.3- 150421 W84 0.0 0.1+ 040911 651 0.8+ 0.9+ 041109 413 0.4+ 0.5- 150422 W84 0.1+ 0.1- 040911 651 1.0- 0.7+ 2015/ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2015 May 6