Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 3013 51P/Harrington - D (2001/2002, 2008, 2015)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 203 observations 2001 to 2015, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 0.69 arc second. All observations reported after 2015 September 7 must belong to component D. No observation of the principal component A has been reported after 2015 September. Because the separation between component A-D was +1.0 deg for R. A. and +0.5 deg for Decl. in 2015 September and October, if poor ephemeris was used, there is a possibility true principal component A didn't come in the field, together. Perhaps observer recognized this was the principal component A. Now components B and C observed in 1994 were not identical with component D (NK 2919) probably. The comet has passed 0.37 AU from Jupiter on 2003 Oct. 24 and will pass 0.42 AU from Jupiter on 2039 Apr. 23 UT. See the previous orbits in NK 366, NK 489, MPC 24216, NK 678 (= MPC 43161), NK 678A, NK 961, NK 961D, NK 1655, NK 1686, NK 2314, NK 2916 (= HICQ 2015) and NK 2919. Epoch = 2015 Aug. 6.0 TT T = 2015 Aug. 11.60588 +/- 0.00032 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 269.32276 +/- 0.00029 Node = 83.67724 +/- 0.00021 (2000.0) Inc. = 5.42503 +/- 0.00001 q = 1.6993368 +/- 0.0000010 AU e = 0.5424469 +/- 0.0000002 a = 3.7139665 +/- 0.0000007 AU n' = 0.13770418 +/- 0.00000004 P = 7.157 +/- 0.0000021 years A1 = +0.088 +/- 0.024 A2 = -0.00520 +/- 0.00064 T = 2001 June 5.74824 TT Epoch = 2001 June 20.0 TT Peri. = 233.59256 e = 0.5618466 Node = 119.18122 (2000.0) a = 3.5786405 AU Inc. = 8.65500 n'= 0.14558847 q = 1.5679936 AU P = 6.770 years T = 2008 June 18.03775 TT Epoch = 2008 June 23.0 TT Peri. = 269.19268 e = 0.5442802 Node = 83.75983 (2000.0) a = 3.7030669 AU Inc. = 5.42919 n'= 0.13831260 q = 1.6875607 AU P = 7.126 years The predicted orbit for the 2022 return is as follows: T = 2022 Oct. 1.75784 TT Epoch = 2022 Sept.18.0 TT Peri. = 269.29845 e = 0.5436807 Node = 83.65600 (2000.0) a = 3.7087863 AU Inc. = 5.42649 n'= 0.13799278 q = 1.6923909 AU P = 7.142 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2001/ 011214 046 0.2- 0.5- 020114 704 1.8- 0.1+ 011019 170 0.7- 0.5+ 011214 046 1.3- 0.5+ 020114 704 1.7+ 0.2+ 011025 170 2.0- 0.1+ 011214 046 1.4- 0.4+ 020114 704 (6.2+ 2.1+) 011025 170 1.3- 0.1- 011214 046 0.5+ 0.7+ 020116 046 1.6+ 0.1+ 011025 170 0.9- 0.1+ 011214 046 1.1+ 0.2+ 020116 046 0.6+ 0.2- 011206 170 0.7- 0.4+ 011214 046 0.1- 0.2- 020116 235 1.1- 2.0- 011206 170 (3.5+ 0.7+) 011215 587 0.8+ 0.4- 020117 235 0.0 0.2+ 011206 170 0.7+ 0.5+ 011215 587 0.2- 0.1- 020117 170 0.5+ 0.4+ 011206 213 1.8- 1.1+ 011216 941 0.7- 0.6- 020117 170 (2.7+ 1.2-) 011206 213 (2.4- 1.0+) 011216 941 0.2+ 0.2- 020118 170 (2.8+ 1.2-) 011206 213 0.8- 1.0+ 011216 941 0.8- 0.2+ 020120 170 0.7- 0.9- 011207 170 0.7+ 0.6+ 011216 235 (2.4- 0.2-) 020129 461 (0.8+ 2.5-) 011207 213 (2.7- 0.3-) 011216 213 1.3- 0.0 020129 461 (1.2+ 2.3-) 011207 213 (5.4- 0.9+) 011216 213 1.8+ 0.6- 020129 461 0.3- 0.3- 011207 213 1.5- 0.3+ 011218 360 0.1- 0.4- 020131 620 0.8- 1.6- 011207 213 (1.6- 3.0+) 011218 360 0.1- 0.6- 020131 620 0.9- 1.9- 011207 941 0.2- 0.3+ 011218 235 1.7- 0.4- 020201 402 0.3- 1.3- 011207 941 1.0- 0.6+ 011219 213 0.6- 1.0- 020201 402 0.8+ 1.1- 011207 941 1.1- 0.8+ 011219 213 0.1+ 0.0 020201 402 1.2+ 0.3- 011207 941 2.0- 1.1+ 011219 170 1.5+ 0.7- 020201 620 1.4- 0.7- 011207 170 (5.0- 1.7-) 011220 170 2.2+ 0.1- 020201 620 0.4+ 1.1+ 011207 170 1.6- 0.5- 011220 170 (3.2+ 0.6-) 020202 170 0.2- 0.9- 011208 349 0.2- 0.4- 011220 170 1.8+ 0.2- 020202 170 0.2+ 0.8- 011208 213 0.6- 0.0 011220 170 2.1+ 0.8+ 020202 170 0.2+ 1.4- 011208 213 (2.3- 3.7+) 011220 170 0.9+ 0.5+ 020207 360 0.0 0.8- 011208 611 0.9- 0.5+ 011222 213 0.5- 0.1- 020207 360 0.3+ 1.0- 011208 611 1.2- 0.5+ 011222 213 2.2+ 0.0 020207 360 0.2+ 1.5- 011208 213 1.9+ 0.5+ 011222 213 1.1- 0.8+ 020310 587 (5.5- 3.1-) 011208 118 1.1- 0.7+ 011222 213 1.0+ 0.1- 020310 587 (3.0- 2.0-) 011208 118 0.7- 0.3+ 011223 461 0.9+ 0.4- 2008/ 011208 118 0.3- 0.4+ 011223 461 0.7+ 0.7- 080929 G96 0.4- 0.3- 011208 118 0.6- 0.6+ 011223 461 0.1- 0.1+ 080929 G96 0.1- 0.9- 011208 611 1.0- 0.1+ 011223 461 0.2+ 0.2- 080929 G96 0.7+ 0.0 011209 170 0.6- 1.5+ 011223 235 0.5+ 0.6+ 080929 G96 0.3+ 0.2- 011209 170 0.1- 0.2+ 011224 170 (3.2+ 0.2-) 2015/ 011209 170 0.8- 1.4+ 011224 170 0.4+ 0.2- 150530 F51 0.1- 0.0 011209 309 0.7- 0.2- 011224 461 0.0 0.8+ 150530 F51 0.3- 0.2- 011209 691 0.8- 0.1+ 011225 213 (3.9- 0.8+) 150530 F51 0.1- 0.2+ 011209 118 1.3- 0.2+ 011225 213 0.2- 1.9- 150530 F51 0.1+ 0.0 011209 118 0.7- 0.8+ 011225 213 2.0- 0.5- 150728 Q62 1.1- 0.7- 011209 118 1.1- 0.4+ 011225 170 0.0 0.5- 150728 Q62 0.9- 0.9- 011209 235 0.2+ 2.0+ 011225 170 (4.1+ 1.2-) 150728 Q62 0.7- 0.9- 011209 046 0.7- 0.1- 011226 349 0.4+ 0.5- 150812 F51 0.0 0.2+ 011209 046 0.4- 0.2- 011226 349 0.7+ 1.9+ 150812 F51 0.0 0.2+ 011209 046 0.6+ 0.3+ 2002/ 150812 F51 0.0 0.1+ 011209 046 0.8- 0.4+ 020101 235 0.8+ 0.7+ 150812 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 011209 046 1.0- 0.8+ 020102 235 0.5- 1.9- 150817 Q62 1.0- 0.1+ 011209 046 1.2+ 0.1+ 020103 613 (2.7+ 0.6-) 150817 Q62 1.0- 0.1- 011209 046 (2.4+ 0.7+) 020103 613 0.4+ 0.5- 150817 Q62 0.5- 0.0 011209 046 0.3+ 0.8+ 020103 613 1.9+ 0.1- 150821 F51 0.2+ 0.2+ 011209 170 0.4+ 0.1+ 020104 215 1.0+ 0.6- 150821 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 011209 170 0.6- 0.0 020104 215 0.1- 0.0 150821 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 011209 170 0.5+ 0.1+ 020104 215 0.9+ 0.3- 150821 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 011209 170 1.5+ 1.3+ 020104 046 0.1- 0.1+ 150907 J22 0.6- 0.3+ 011209 611 0.5- 0.1+ 020104 046 0.1+ 0.6- 150907 J22 0.1- 0.3+ 011209 611 1.7- 0.1+ 020104 046 0.3- 0.5- 150907 J22 0.4+ 0.1+ 011209 611 2.0- 0.0 020104 046 0.5- 0.7- 150913 A71 0.9- 0.3- 011210 309 0.5- 0.1- 020104 235 0.3+ 0.6- 150913 A71 0.4- 0.1- 011210 349 0.4+ 1.2+ 020104 613 (3.9+ 0.8-) 150914 J22 (2.7- 0.2-) 011210 349 0.2+ 1.3+ 020106 235 1.2- 0.3- 150914 J22 0.5- 0.1- 011210 349 1.1+ 0.9+ 020107 235 0.2- 0.3+ 150914 J22 (2.8+ 0.2+) 011210 235 (3.6- 1.9+) 020107 170 (2.3+ 0.2+) 150920 A71 0.2- 0.6+ 011210 587 1.0- 0.7+ 020108 235 1.6+ 0.6- 150920 A71 0.7- 0.5- 011210 587 1.0- 1.0+ 020109 587 1.4+ 0.4- 151008 J22 1.5- 0.5- 011211 422 0.6- 0.4+ 020109 587 0.2- 0.5- 151008 J22 1.1- 0.0 011211 422 0.3- 0.4+ 020110 046 0.7+ 0.4- 151008 J22 0.7- 0.1+ 011211 422 0.8- 0.2+ 020110 046 0.6+ 1.0- 151012 F51 0.0 0.1- 011211 213 1.0+ 0.4+ 020110 046 0.6+ 0.0 151012 F51 0.1- 0.0 011211 213 0.2- 0.3+ 020110 235 0.8+ 0.5+ 151012 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 011211 170 0.4+ 0.5+ 020111 360 0.6+ 1.2- 151012 F51 0.2- 0.0 011211 213 2.0+ 0.4+ 020111 360 0.5+ 0.7- 151015 F51 0.2+ 0.2- 011211 170 0.0 0.4+ 020111 620 2.1+ 0.0 151015 F51 0.2+ 0.3- 011211 170 0.9+ 1.1+ 020111 213 1.2+ 1.8- 151015 F51 0.3+ 0.1- 011211 170 0.3- 1.0+ 020111 213 0.5+ 1.2- 151015 F51 0.4+ 0.2- 011212 235 0.1- 1.2+ 020111 620 2.1+ 0.1+ 151020 J22 0.5- 0.4+ 011213 170 (2.3+ 0.7+) 020111 620 1.4+ 0.4- 151020 J22 0.5- 0.4+ 011213 170 0.0 0.3+ 020111 170 1.4+ 1.4- 151020 J22 0.7- 0.4+ 011213 170 (2.3- 1.4+) 020111 170 1.9+ 0.6- 011214 235 0.5- 1.4+ 020112 235 0.5+ 1.0- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2015 Nov. 9