Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4227 P/Catalina (2007 VQ11 = 2020 T1)

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 96 observations 2007 to 2020. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.60 arc second. Residuals for the recovery observations on 2020 August were +21'.7 for Right Ascension and +1'.0 for Declination from the prediction in NK 1727 (= HICQ 2008, HICQ 2019/2020) with the delta-T correction = -1.61 days. Observations in 2007/2008 show some bad residual, there mightbe non-gravitational effects on comet's motion. See the previous orbits in NK 1575, NK 1728 and CBET 4869 (same orbit). Epoch = 2020 Sept.28.0 TT T = 2020 Sept.16.37989 +/- 0.00166 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 277.67350 +/- 0.00042 Node = 163.81705 +/- 0.00008 (2000.0) Inc. = 12.31999 +/- 0.00001 q = 2.6952779 +/- 0.0000047 AU e = 0.5032163 +/- 0.0000009 a = 5.4254556 +/- 0.0000135 AU n' = 0.07799194 +/- 0.00000029 P = 12.637 +/- 0.0000473 years T = 2008 Feb. 13.77690 TT Epoch = 2008 Feb. 24.0 TT Peri. = 277.72098 e = 0.5021833 Node = 164.05379 (2000.0) a = 5.4102191 AU Inc. = 12.32459 n'= 0.07832164 q = 2.6932972 AU P = 12.584 years The predicted orbit for the 2033 return is as follows: T = 2033 May 23.37985 TT Epoch = 2033 June 12.0 TT Peri. = 277.72219 e = 0.5030686 Node = 163.69006 (2000.0) a = 5.4548497 AU Inc. = 12.30868 n'= 0.07736239 q = 2.7106859 AU P = 12.740 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2007/ 080202 215 0.3+ 0.3- 2019/ 071103 703 1.6- 0.9- 080202 215 0.7+ 1.0- 190929 F51 0.0 0.0 071103 703 1.9- 0.3- 080202 204 0.9+ 0.2+ 190929 F51 0.0 0.1- 071103 703 (2.1- 0.4+) 080202 204 0.7+ 0.1- 190929 F51 0.0 0.1- 071103 703 (2.3- 0.0 ) 080205 118 1.1- 0.4- 190929 F51 0.1- 0.1- 071106 D29 1.1- 0.4- 080205 118 0.7- 1.0- 191028 F51 0.0 0.1+ 071106 D29 0.4- 0.3- 080206 A77 (0.2- 3.3+) 191028 F51 0.0 0.1- 071106 D29 1.1- 0.4- 080206 A77 1.0- 1.2- 191028 F51 0.1+ 0.0 071106 D29 1.3- 0.2+ 080206 A77 (1.1+ 2.2+) 191028 F51 0.4+ 0.0 071109 703 1.3- 0.6+ 080207 G96 0.4+ 0.1+ 2020/ 071109 703 2.0- 0.0 080207 G96 1.4+ 0.1+ 200818 H06 0.0 0.2+ 071109 703 (2.7- 1.1-) 080207 G96 1.2+ 0.1+ 200818 H06 0.2+ 0.2+ 071109 703 1.4- 1.1- 080207 G96 0.5+ 0.2- 200818 Q62 0.1- 0.2- 071118 699 0.7- 0.7+ 080207 130 0.6+ 0.2- 200818 Q62 0.2- 0.2- 071118 699 (2.2- 0.3+) 080207 130 0.5- 0.6- 200819 Z84 0.0 0.3- 071118 699 1.2- 0.4+ 080207 130 1.3+ 0.2- 200819 Z84 0.5+ 0.7- 071118 699 0.5- 0.3- 080209 204 0.7+ 0.1- 200819 Z84 0.6+ 0.4- 071205 703 0.1- 0.9+ 080209 204 0.2+ 0.1+ 201015 G96 0.7- 0.1- 071205 703 1.1- 1.2+ 080210 699 1.0+ 0.3+ 201015 G96 0.0 0.6- 071205 703 1.4- 1.8+ 080210 699 0.6+ 0.4+ 201015 G96 0.0 0.2- 071205 703 1.2- 1.9+ 080210 699 0.6+ 0.3- 201015 G96 0.6- 0.1- 2008/ 080210 699 (2.5+ 1.1+) 201015 G96 0.3+ 0.7- 080201 703 (2.1+ 0.1-) 080210 D88 1.0+ 0.7- 201015 G96 0.5+ 0.3- 080201 703 1.8+ 1.4+ 080210 D88 0.4+ 0.1+ 201015 G96 0.3- 0.6- 080201 703 1.6+ 1.5+ 080210 349 0.3+ 0.3+ 201016 J04 0.0 0.2- 080201 703 2.0+ 1.1+ 080210 349 0.5- 0.5- 201016 J04 0.2- 0.1+ 080201 703 0.6+ 0.8+ 080304 703 0.0 0.7+ 201016 J04 0.0 0.2- 080201 703 0.7+ 1.4+ 080304 703 0.3+ 0.0 201016 I52 0.1- 1.4- 080201 703 1.3+ 0.4+ 080304 703 1.1+ 0.9- 201016 I52 0.4- 1.1- 080201 673 0.0 0.0 080304 703 1.2+ 0.4+ 201016 I52 0.2+ 0.3- 080201 673 0.0 0.1+ 080305 118 0.3+ 0.0 201017 C95 0.3+ 0.6+ 080201 673 0.3+ 0.4+ 080305 118 0.2+ 0.4- 201017 C95 0.6+ 0.3+ 080201 673 0.4+ 0.8+ 080327 704 0.2- 0.7+ 201017 Z08 0.4+ 0.5- 080201 J95 0.5+ 0.3+ 080327 704 0.3+ 0.3+ 201017 Z08 0.2- 0.1+ 080201 J95 0.4+ 0.3+ 080327 704 0.2+ 1.2- 201017 Z08 0.0 0.3+ 080201 J95 0.7+ 0.1+ 080327 704 0.5- 0.4+ 080202 215 0.9+ 0.5+ 080327 704 (2.1+ 0.1+) ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2020 Oct. 22

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