Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4516 P/2021 N4 = 2016 Ux

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 21 observations 2016 to 2021. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.32 arc second. Residuals on 2016 observations were -2.9 deg for Right Ascension and -0.5 deg for Declination from an orbit in CBET 5019 with the delta-T correction = +6.3 days. The comet has passed 2.78 AU from Jupiter on 2021 June 1 and will pass 2.45 AU and 1.93 AU from Jupiter on 2031 Mar. 29 and 2040 Oct. 10 UT, respectively. See for comet on CBET 5019. Epoch = 2021 Aug. 14.0 TT T = 2021 Aug. 30.63234 +/- 0.00575 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 105.29934 +/- 0.00190 Node = 239.16338 +/- 0.00010 (2000.0) Inc. = 10.06668 +/- 0.00002 q = 2.3009640 +/- 0.0000042 AU e = 0.2425354 +/- 0.0000014 a = 3.0377183 +/- 0.0000079 AU n' = 0.18615848 +/- 0.00000072 P = 5.294 +/- 0.0000206 years T = 2016 May 19.48692 TT Epoch = 2016 May 12.0 TT Peri. = 105.76385 e = 0.2418698 Node = 239.21870 (2000.0) a = 3.0368245 AU Inc. = 10.07168 n'= 0.18624067 q = 2.3023083 AU P = 5.292 years The predicted orbit for the 2026 return is as follows: T = 2026 Dec. 15.30401 TT Epoch = 2026 Dec. 26.0 TT Peri. = 105.21569 e = 0.2406181 Node = 239.12126 (2000.0) a = 3.0388197 AU Inc. = 10.06616 n'= 0.18605729 q = 2.3076246 AU P = 5.297 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Residuals in seconds of arc 2016/ 210708 F51 0.0 0.0 210810 L01 1.2- 0.3+ 161025 F51 0.1- 0.1- 210708 F51 0.0 0.0 210810 568 0.1+ 0.0 161025 F51 0.1- 0.1- 210708 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 210810 568 0.0 0.0 161025 F51 0.1- 0.1- 210809 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 210810 568 0.0 0.0 161115 F51 0.0 0.1+ 210809 F51 0.3- 0.0 210814 Q62 0.6+ 0.6- 161115 F51 0.0 0.2+ 210809 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 210814 Q62 0.9+ 0.4- 161115 F51 0.3+ 0.0 210809 F51 0.0 0.1- 210814 Q62 0.7+ 0.0 2021/ 210810 L01 0.2+ 0.5+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2021 Aug. 19

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