OAA computing section circular NK 960 104P/Kowal 2

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 454 observations 1991 to 2003, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 0.86 arc second. See orbits in NKs 621 and 784. There are systematic tendency in late 1997 and 1998 observations. The comet will pass 0.05 AU from the Earth on 2049 Nov. 8. Also comet will pass 0.30 AU on 2007 July, 0.35 AU on 2019 June and 0.67 AU on 2031 July from Jupiter. Epoch = 2004 Apr. 25.0 TT T = 2004 May 9.16101 +/- 0.00284 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 192.04078 +/- 0.00064 Node = 246.08614 +/- 0.00008 (2000.0) Inc. = 15.48936 +/- 0.00001 q = 1.3958749 +/- 0.0000018 AU e = 0.5853928 +/- 0.0000024 a = 3.3667405 +/- 0.0000058 AU n' = 0.15954736 +/- 0.00000041 P = 6.178 +/- 0.0000160 years A1 = +0.614 +/- 0.093 A2 = -0.51498 +/- 0.00206 T = 1991 Nov. 4.43400 TT Epoch = 1991 Oct. 31.0 TT Peri. = 189.55874 e = 0.5642908 Node = 247.78423 (2000.0) a = 3.4421862 AU Inc. = 15.82964 n'= 0.15433078 q = 1.4997921 AU P = 6.386 years T = 1998 Mar. 2.16501 TT Epoch = 1998 Mar. 8.0 TT Peri. = 191.90432 e = 0.5852854 Node = 246.14800 (2000.0) a = 3.3674731 AU Inc. = 15.48913 n'= 0.15949529 q = 1.3965403 AU P = 6.180 years The predicted orbit for the 2010 return is as follows: T = 2010 May 4.63946 TT Epoch = 2010 May 4.0 TT Peri. = 200.55379 e = 0.6381484 Node = 235.51780 (2000.0) a = 3.2600448 AU Inc. = 10.26893 n'= 0.16744367 q = 1.1796524 AU P = 5.886 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1991/ 970808 118 1.4- 1.7- 971018 108 (0.0 2.9+) 911212 875 1.5- 0.7- 970808 118 1.5- 2.0- 971018 108 0.1+ 2.0+ 911213 875 0.0 0.2- 970808 118 0.5- 0.6- 971018 108 0.6+ 0.6- 911213 875 (2.7- 2.7-) 970808 118 0.8- 0.6- 971018 118 1.7+ 0.5+ 911213 875 1.2- 0.1- 970808 118 0.6- 0.4- 971018 118 1.8+ 0.7+ 911215 411 1.0- 2.2+ 970809 897 0.4- 0.6- 971018 108 2.1+ 1.4+ 911215 411 0.6+ 1.4- 970809 897 2.0- 1.2- 971018 605 1.3+ 1.3+ 911215 411 (3.5- 1.0+) 970809 046 0.9- 0.6- 971018 605 1.9+ 0.9+ 911215 411 1.2- 0.9- 970810 046 0.9- 0.6- 971019 118 1.2+ 0.4+ 911215 411 1.1+ 0.1+ 970810 046 1.1- 0.7- 971019 118 1.6+ 0.5+ 911216 381 1.4+ 0.7+ 970810 118 1.1- 0.7- 971022 360 1.2+ 0.6+ 911216 896 (3.2- 1.9-) 970810 118 1.1- 0.6- 971022 360 1.0+ 0.6+ 911216 896 (2.8- 0.9+) 970810 118 1.6- 0.6- 971022 118 1.9+ 0.4+ 911216 411 0.9- 0.7- 970810 118 1.5- 0.8- 971022 118 1.4+ 1.0+ 911216 896 (2.7+ 8.3-) 970810 557 0.7- 0.6- 971023 867 1.1+ 0.6+ 911216 411 (3.6- 3.3+) 970810 557 1.0- 0.6- 971023 867 1.0+ 0.5+ 911216 897 1.6+ 0.0 970810 557 0.9- 0.6- 971023 867 1.3+ 0.5+ 911216 411 2.2- 0.3+ 970811 402 0.8- 0.6- 971026 897 (2.5+ 0.0 ) 911216 411 1.0- 0.4- 970811 402 1.3- 0.9- 971026 897 2.3+ 0.5+ 911216 411 1.2- 1.6+ 970811 402 0.8- 0.7- 971026 897 2.0+ 0.5+ 911216 897 0.1+ 1.6+ 970814 118 0.8- 0.1- 971027 605 (2.5+ 0.5+) 911217 372 (2.6- 0.9+) 970815 118 1.0- 0.6- 971027 605 (2.5+ 0.1-) 911217 372 1.6- 1.3+ 970815 118 0.7- 0.6- 971027 605 1.9+ 0.2- 911217 372 1.2- 1.4+ 970817 402 0.9- 0.3- 971028 352 2.3+ 0.3+ 911217 372 (3.6- 0.3+) 970817 402 0.9- 0.4- 971028 352 2.0+ 0.3+ 911218 411 1.4- 0.9+ 970819 118 0.1- 0.2- 971028 352 (3.0+ 0.3+) 911218 411 0.8+ 1.1+ 970819 118 0.6+ 0.4- 971029 402 1.9+ 0.6+ 911218 411 (0.9- 2.6+) 970821 118 1.3- 0.8- 971029 402 2.0+ 0.5+ 911218 411 0.5+ 1.7+ 970821 118 1.1- 0.8- 971029 402 1.9+ 0.6+ 911218 411 (2.8- 2.4+) 970822 118 0.5- 0.1- 971030 504 2.3+ 0.6+ 911218 411 (2.5- 1.9+) 970822 118 0.6- 0.2- 971030 504 1.9+ 0.6+ 911219 411 (0.4- 4.6+) 970822 118 0.4- 0.0 971030 504 1.8+ 0.8+ 911219 411 0.6- 1.1+ 970823 108 0.4- 0.3+ 971030 504 1.5+ 0.3+ 911219 411 (2.5- 0.1-) 970823 108 0.0 0.6+ 971030 504 1.8+ 0.4+ 911219 411 0.1+ 0.0 970823 108 0.3- 0.6+ 971030 504 1.7+ 0.8+ 911219 411 0.4+ 0.3+ 970824 402 0.7- 0.7- 971030 504 1.6+ 0.6+ 911221 413 1.2+ 0.5- 970824 402 0.4- 0.1- 971030 504 1.8+ 0.6+ 911221 413 1.3+ 0.7- 970824 402 0.5- 0.1- 971030 504 1.6+ 0.8+ 911229 372 0.0 0.3- 970824 118 0.6- 0.5- 971031 605 (2.8+ 0.0 ) 911229 372 0.7- 1.6- 970824 118 0.9- 0.3- 971031 605 (3.2+ 0.0 ) 911230 411 0.0 0.5+ 970824 118 0.9- 0.4- 971031 605 1.9+ 0.4+ 911230 411 0.1- 2.2+ 970825 118 1.5- 0.6- 971103 402 1.8+ 0.0 911230 411 1.4- 0.6+ 970825 118 1.6- 0.4- 971103 402 1.7+ 0.0 911230 411 0.4- 0.3- 970826 360 0.6- 0.2+ 971104 900 1.4+ 0.2+ 911230 411 (1.2- 2.7+) 970826 360 0.8- 0.2+ 971104 900 1.9+ 0.8+ 911230 411 0.6+ 0.4+ 970827 118 1.5- 0.3- 971104 046 1.5+ 0.2+ 911230 372 0.7- 2.0- 970827 118 1.6- 0.6- 971104 046 1.5+ 0.0 1992/ 970827 118 1.6- 0.3- 971104 046 1.9+ 0.2+ 920101 801 1.1+ 1.4- 970827 118 1.9- 0.4- 971105 360 1.6+ 0.0 920101 801 1.2- 0.5- 970828 352 1.2- 0.7- 971105 360 1.7+ 0.1+ 920102 411 0.4- 0.7+ 970828 352 1.6- 0.7- 971105 402 1.6+ 0.0 920102 411 0.6+ 1.1+ 970828 352 1.9- 0.3- 971105 402 2.1+ 0.1+ 920102 411 0.4+ 0.4+ 970828 360 0.5- 0.3+ 971105 402 1.5+ 0.0 920102 411 1.0- 0.0 970828 360 0.6- 0.3+ 971106 897 1.3+ 0.2+ 920102 411 0.4- 1.4+ 970828 867 0.9- 0.2- 971106 897 (2.5+ 0.5+) 920102 411 0.6+ 0.0 970828 867 1.3- 0.5- 971109 352 (2.8+ 1.5+) 920102 897 0.7+ 0.4+ 970831 118 1.6- 1.0- 971109 352 (2.4+ 0.4-) 920102 897 1.3+ 1.9- 970831 118 1.6- 1.1- 971109 352 (2.7+ 0.7+) 920103 372 1.1- 0.3- 970831 605 1.3- 1.1- 971112 658 1.4+ 0.1- 920103 372 1.2- 1.3+ 970831 605 1.4- 1.0- 971112 658 1.4+ 0.2- 920104 373 1.2+ 0.7- 970901 605 1.3- 1.3- 971112 658 1.1+ 0.2- 920104 373 0.9+ 0.7- 970901 605 1.8- 0.8- 971118 897 (2.9+ 2.5+) 920104 411 1.0+ 0.2- 970901 118 0.7- 0.4- 971118 897 (2.6+ 2.3+) 920104 411 0.6- 0.5- 970901 118 0.9- 0.1- 971118 347 (2.9+ 0.7+) 920104 411 0.0 0.5+ 970902 897 1.2- 0.2- 971118 347 (2.7+ 1.6+) 920104 411 2.2- 0.8- 970902 897 1.1- 0.5- 971119 900 (3.1+ 1.4+) 920104 411 0.3- 0.5- 970903 118 0.6- 0.0 971119 900 (3.5+ 1.2+) 920104 411 1.5- 0.9- 970903 118 0.6- 0.1- 971120 360 2.2+ 0.9+ 920104 411 0.4- 1.5- 970903 118 0.7- 0.3- 971120 360 2.1+ 1.0+ 920106 801 1.0- 1.0- 970903 118 0.7- 0.2- 971120 402 2.2+ 0.8+ 920106 801 0.4+ 0.9- 970904 118 0.9- 0.5- 971120 402 (2.6+ 0.9+) 920107 657 0.6+ 1.7- 970904 118 1.0- 0.3- 971120 402 (2.7+ 1.0+) 920107 657 1.2+ 1.2- 970905 118 0.2- 0.6- 971120 118 (3.2+ 1.0+) 920107 657 1.3+ 1.3- 970905 118 0.2- 0.5- 971120 118 (3.8+ 1.5+) 920110 411 0.9- 0.7+ 970905 118 0.3- 0.4- 971124 403 1.6+ 1.0+ 920110 411 1.6- 1.6+ 970906 605 1.1- 0.4- 971124 403 1.7+ 1.8+ 920110 411 0.1+ 0.1+ 970906 605 0.0 1.1+ 971124 403 (3.5+ 1.6+) 920205 801 0.0 0.5- 970906 605 1.0- 0.6- 971130 347 (2.5+ 0.1-) 920205 801 0.1- 0.5- 970907 118 0.4- 0.3- 971130 347 (3.0+ 1.0+) 920207 801 0.3+ 0.9- 970907 118 0.2- 0.3- 971202 897 (2.4+ 1.3+) 920207 801 0.1+ 1.0- 970909 360 0.2- 0.0 971202 897 (2.7+ 1.5+) 920207 658 0.6- 2.2- 970909 360 0.2- 0.0 971202 897 2.3+ 1.2+ 920207 658 0.9- 1.0- 970910 658 0.9- 0.2- 971204 360 (2.4+ 1.4+) 920210 897 0.2- 0.4- 970910 658 0.6- 0.1- 971204 360 (2.5+ 1.4+) 920222 411 1.1+ 0.9- 970910 046 0.1+ 0.2- 971216 605 (2.1+ 2.9+) 920222 411 1.4+ 0.7- 970910 046 0.4- 0.1- 971216 605 (4.1+ 4.4+) 920222 411 0.5+ 0.5- 970910 046 0.2- 0.5- 971216 605 (1.6+ 4.6+) 920222 411 0.7+ 1.0- 970910 605 2.0- 0.8- 971220 426 (3.3+ 1.8+) 920301 801 1.5+ 1.0+ 970910 605 1.7- 1.3- 971220 426 (3.4+ 1.5+) 920301 801 1.3+ 1.6+ 970910 605 1.0- 1.4- 971220 426 2.0+ 1.3+ 920306 411 0.6- 1.7+ 970910 605 1.6- 0.7- 971221 347 (3.4+ 1.5+) 920312 658 0.6- 0.2- 970910 118 0.4- 0.3- 971221 347 (2.8+ 1.6+) 920312 658 0.4- 0.1- 970910 118 0.1- 0.1- 971221 347 (3.3+ 2.5+) 920312 658 0.6- 0.1- 970910 118 0.7- 0.5- 971221 897 2.2+ 1.2+ 920313 658 0.1- 0.1- 970912 046 0.0 0.0 971221 897 (2.7+ 1.5+) 920313 658 0.1+ 0.2- 970912 046 0.3+ 0.1- 971221 897 (2.6+ 2.1+) 920313 658 0.0 0.1+ 970912 046 0.2+ 0.2- 971224 360 (2.4+ 0.4+) 920322 897 0.3+ 1.8- 970915 118 0.2- 0.7- 971224 360 (2.6+ 0.4+) 920322 411 1.0+ 1.0- 970915 118 0.3- 0.8- 971231 897 2.1+ 1.5+ 920322 411 1.2+ 0.0 970916 118 0.0 0.1- 971231 897 (2.8+ 2.1+) 920322 897 1.7+ 1.2- 970916 118 0.2- 0.5- 971231 046 1.9+ 0.8+ 920322 411 1.2+ 0.1- 970916 118 0.2- 0.5- 971231 046 1.5+ 0.8+ 920401 801 1.7+ 0.4- 970917 118 0.2- 0.7- 971231 046 1.6+ 0.8+ 920401 801 1.0+ 0.5- 970917 118 0.5- 0.7- 1998/ 920430 801 1.2+ 0.7- 970918 118 1.0- 0.3- 980108 118 (2.8+ 0.6+) 920430 801 1.6+ 1.9- 970918 118 0.9- 0.5- 980108 118 (3.4+ 1.1+) 1997/ 970919 118 1.0- 0.6- 980109 143 (0.8- 3.0-) 970514 696 0.4- 0.8+ 970919 118 1.0- 0.6- 980109 143 (2.5+ 0.1+) 970514 696 0.9- 1.2+ 970919 897 1.2- 0.5- 980109 143 0.5- 1.2+ 970514 696 1.6- 0.8+ 970919 897 0.3- 0.4- 980109 143 (1.5- 4.0-) 970515 696 0.8- 1.4- 970919 897 0.3- 0.4- 980109 143 0.2+ 0.9- 970515 696 1.0- 1.7- 970919 108 0.1+ 0.9+ 980111 046 1.6+ 0.3+ 970515 696 1.2- 1.6- 970919 108 1.7+ 0.6+ 980111 046 1.7+ 0.9+ 970531 402 0.9- 0.2+ 970920 118 0.5+ 0.5- 980111 046 1.4+ 0.9+ 970531 402 1.0- 0.1+ 970920 118 0.6+ 0.6- 980119 355 2.2+ 1.2+ 970531 402 (2.4- 1.7+) 970920 118 0.4+ 0.4- 980119 355 (2.5+ 1.4+) 970607 402 0.5- 1.1+ 970920 605 0.6- 0.4- 980120 402 1.2+ 0.8+ 970607 402 1.0- 0.8+ 970920 605 0.6+ 0.1+ 980120 402 0.9+ 0.6+ 970607 402 0.6- 1.0+ 970920 605 0.3+ 0.8- 980120 402 0.8+ 0.5+ 970612 402 0.4- 0.5+ 970921 118 0.1+ 0.3- 980120 897 2.0+ 1.1+ 970612 402 1.1- 0.3+ 970921 118 0.4+ 0.5- 980120 897 1.1+ 0.9+ 970612 402 1.4- 0.9+ 970921 118 0.2+ 0.6- 980125 347 (0.7+ 2.7+) 970629 402 0.5- 1.1+ 970922 046 0.3+ 0.5- 980125 347 0.9+ 2.1+ 970629 402 1.1- 0.4+ 970922 046 0.3+ 0.5- 980126 897 1.9+ 0.8+ 970629 402 0.7- 0.1- 970922 046 0.4+ 0.5- 980126 897 (3.8+ 1.5+) 970629 360 1.2- 0.4+ 970925 605 0.1- 1.0- 980126 897 1.2+ 1.3+ 970629 360 0.6- 0.7+ 970925 605 0.5+ 0.9- 980126 118 2.2+ 0.2- 970703 402 0.3- 1.2+ 970925 605 0.4- 1.1- 980126 118 1.5+ 0.4+ 970703 402 1.0- 0.5+ 970926 118 0.1- 0.4+ 980129 360 0.8+ 1.1+ 970703 402 0.6- 0.7+ 970926 118 0.1+ 0.2+ 980129 360 0.6+ 1.2+ 970704 867 1.8- 0.3- 970927 118 0.1- 0.1+ 980131 355 0.4- 1.1+ 970704 867 (2.4- 0.6-) 970927 118 0.0 0.2- 980131 355 0.2- 0.8+ 970705 360 0.5- 0.7+ 970928 900 0.1+ 0.4- 980204 118 0.8- 0.8+ 970705 360 0.8- 0.8+ 970928 900 0.3+ 0.3+ 980204 118 0.8- 0.8+ 970711 696 0.0 1.2+ 970928 352 0.6+ 0.6- 980205 046 0.5- 0.6+ 970711 696 0.1- 0.8+ 970928 352 1.2+ 0.2+ 980205 046 0.2- 0.8+ 970711 696 0.3- 1.2+ 970928 352 0.7+ 0.1+ 980205 046 0.1+ 0.7+ 970711 696 0.0 1.3+ 970928 402 0.1+ 0.1- 980218 605 (1.9+ 2.7+) 970714 696 0.1- 0.6+ 970928 402 0.3+ 0.3- 980218 605 1.3- 1.5+ 970714 696 0.1+ 0.7+ 970928 402 0.3+ 0.3- 980218 605 (0.9+ 2.5+) 970714 696 0.2- 0.7+ 970929 360 0.1+ 0.3+ 980220 118 1.8- 0.9+ 970714 696 0.2- 0.7+ 970929 360 0.1- 0.0 980220 118 1.6- 0.9+ 970714 696 0.1- 0.7+ 970929 118 0.0 0.2- 980222 118 1.7- 0.5+ 970718 402 0.9- 0.1+ 970929 118 0.2- 0.2- 980227 118 (2.7- 1.6+) 970718 402 1.1- 0.3- 971001 867 0.4+ 0.4- 980227 118 1.7- 1.0+ 970718 402 1.4- 0.5+ 971001 867 0.1+ 0.2- 980302 897 0.1- 2.2+ 970723 118 1.0- 0.2- 971001 867 0.2+ 0.6- 980302 897 2.0- 0.7+ 970723 118 0.5- 0.1+ 971003 108 1.6+ 0.8- 980302 897 (2.6- 2.0+) 970726 118 1.2- 0.0 971003 108 1.5+ 1.6- 980302 360 (3.5- 1.0+) 970727 118 0.9- 0.3- 971003 108 0.4+ 0.8- 980302 897 (0.1- 2.7+) 970728 118 1.1- 0.4- 971004 046 0.7+ 0.0 980302 360 (4.1- 0.7+) 970728 118 1.4- 0.5- 971004 046 0.2+ 0.1+ 980309 046 (4.0- 0.9+) 970728 691 0.4- 0.8- 971004 046 0.6+ 0.1+ 980309 046 (4.6- 0.7+) 970728 691 0.6- 0.7- 971005 469 0.1- 1.1- 980309 046 (4.3- 0.2-) 970801 360 0.8- 0.7- 971005 469 0.8+ 0.3+ 980311 118 (4.7- 1.5+) 970801 360 0.7- 0.7- 971005 616 (2.8- 0.8-) 980311 118 (4.1- 1.2+) 970802 118 1.3- 1.0- 971005 616 1.3- 0.5- 980318 360 (6.5- 0.5+) 970802 118 1.3- 1.1- 971005 616 0.9- 1.1- 980318 360 (6.7- 0.5+) 970802 402 0.8- 0.5- 971006 118 0.9+ 0.2+ 980322 118 (5.7- 1.2+) 970802 402 0.7- 0.9- 971006 118 1.0+ 0.1+ 980322 118 (6.2- 0.6+) 970804 118 1.4- 0.8- 971013 118 0.8+ 0.6+ 2003/ 970804 118 1.0- 0.9- 971013 118 1.0+ 0.1- 030831 291 0.9- 0.4- 970804 118 0.8- 1.2- 971013 118 0.6+ 0.4+ 030831 291 0.7- 0.5- 970804 118 0.4- 0.6- 971016 118 1.1+ 1.6+ 030831 291 0.8- 1.5- 970804 118 0.8- 0.8- 971016 118 1.5+ 1.6+ 030921 291 0.3+ 0.3- 970804 118 0.6- 1.1- 971017 118 1.5+ 1.0+ 030921 291 0.4+ 0.1- 970805 118 1.2- 1.0- 971017 118 1.1+ 0.8+ 030921 291 1.1+ 0.4- 970805 118 1.1- 1.0- 971017 118 1.3+ 0.7+ 030928 291 1.3+ 0.0 970805 118 1.2- 0.7- 971017 046 1.2+ 1.1+ 030928 291 0.8+ 0.2+ 970806 118 1.2- 0.9- 971017 046 1.6+ 0.9+ 030928 291 1.1+ 0.6- 970806 118 1.4- 1.2- 971017 046 1.3+ 1.2+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Director, Computing Section Syuichi Nakano 2003 Oct. 9

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