OAA computing section circular NK 1357 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 215 observations 1995 to 2006, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 0.81 arc second. See the previous orbits in NK 673, NK 807 and NK 936. Epoch = 2006 July 4.0 TT T = 2006 June 29.80322 +/- 0.00009 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 326.11562 +/- 0.00037 Node = 89.11200 +/- 0.00035 (2000.0) Inc. = 4.25328 +/- 0.00001 q = 0.5302509 +/- 0.0000004 AU e = 0.8245022 +/- 0.0000005 a = 3.0214108 +/- 0.0000030 AU n' = 0.18766765 +/- 0.00000028 P = 5.252 +/- 0.0000078 years A1 = +0.253 +/- 0.010 A2 = -0.05049 +/- 0.00003 T = 1995 Dec. 25.98442 TT Epoch = 1995 Dec. 29.0 TT Peri. = 326.05321 e = 0.8242309 Node = 89.15612 (2000.0) a = 3.0269850 AU Inc. = 4.24840 n'= 0.18714950 q = 0.5320504 AU P = 5.266 years T = 2001 Mar. 29.92691 TT Epoch = 2001 Apr. 1.0 TT Peri. = 326.13110 e = 0.8250803 Node = 89.08283 (2000.0) a = 3.0208880 AU Inc. = 4.25561 n'= 0.18771637 q = 0.5284129 AU P = 5.251 years The following predicted orbit for the 2011 return is from the above orbit. The Comet will pass near the Earth on 2011 August and 2017 February as follows. Also the comet will close approach until 0.17 AU to Jupiter on 2030 August 2. Planet Date /UT Distance Date /UT Distance Earth 2011 8 15.3 0.0601 2017 2 11.3 0.0854 Moon 2011 8 15.0 0.0604 2017 2 11.5 0.0856 T = 2011 Sept.28.75341 TT Epoch = 2011 Oct. 6.0 TT Peri. = 326.24493 e = 0.8246340 Node = 89.00805 (2000.0) a = 3.0202251 AU Inc. = 4.25327 n'= 0.18777817 q = 0.5296448 AU P = 5.249 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1995/ 960207 611 (6.2+ 0.7-) 000727 809 (2.2- 0.0 ) 950921 568 1.3- 0.6+ 960207 900 1.0+ 0.5+ 000727 809 (2.5- 0.3+) 951021 568 0.6- 0.5- 960207 422 0.7+ 0.6- 2001/ 951021 568 1.8- 0.7- 960207 422 0.9+ 0.3+ 010404 349 0.9- 0.6- 951022 568 1.1- 0.2+ 960207 422 1.0+ 1.0- 010404 349 0.8- 0.3+ 951022 568 1.2- 0.0 960207 900 1.2+ 0.3- 010404 349 0.6+ 0.9+ 951116 360 0.2- 0.5- 960209 557 1.9+ 0.3- 010404 349 1.2- 0.2- 951116 360 0.5+ 1.0- 960209 557 0.4+ 0.2+ 010404 349 0.8+ 0.9+ 951116 360 0.6+ 0.1- 960209 356 (2.1- 0.8+) 010405 300 0.5- 0.3+ 951118 360 0.8+ 0.8+ 960209 356 1.9- 1.5+ 010405 300 0.7- 0.3- 951118 360 0.1- 0.5- 960209 356 (2.9- 0.2-) 010405 300 0.6- 0.2+ 951118 360 0.9+ 0.5+ 960209 118 0.3+ 0.6+ 010405 300 0.8- 0.1- 951124 897 0.6+ 0.7- 960209 118 0.1+ 0.9+ 010405 300 0.6- 0.6+ 951124 897 0.1- 1.4- 960209 118 0.2+ 0.6+ 010407 340 1.3- 1.0+ 951124 897 1.4+ 1.8+ 960209 118 0.5+ 1.1+ 010407 340 (2.2- 0.6-) 951127 897 0.7+ 1.9+ 960209 118 0.2+ 1.1+ 010407 340 1.8- 0.3+ 951127 897 0.1+ 1.0+ 960210 118 0.4+ 0.8+ 010407 340 1.0- 1.2+ 951127 897 0.8- 1.6+ 960210 118 0.0 0.7+ 010413 349 0.6+ 0.7+ 951127 897 1.0+ 2.0+ 960210 118 0.3- 0.9+ 010413 349 0.3+ 0.2+ 951208 897 0.1- 0.2- 960211 422 (2.2+ 0.3+) 010413 341 0.5+ 0.3+ 951208 897 0.8+ 1.8+ 960211 422 0.5+ 0.5- 010413 349 0.5+ 0.0 951208 897 1.0+ 1.7+ 960211 900 0.3+ 0.3+ 010413 349 0.2+ 0.0 951210 356 2.0+ 1.1+ 960211 900 0.3+ 0.4+ 010413 341 0.1- 0.2- 951210 356 0.8+ 1.2+ 960212 897 1.2- 0.3+ 010413 341 0.7+ 0.8+ 951210 360 0.3- 0.4- 960212 897 0.2- 0.8+ 010413 170 1.3+ 0.3- 951210 360 0.3- 0.4- 960212 897 0.6- 0.3- 010413 170 1.5+ 0.1- 951210 360 0.3- 0.4- 960214 568 1.8+ 1.4+ 010415 340 1.1- 0.1+ 951210 356 (2.3+ 1.2+) 960214 568 0.3+ 0.7+ 010415 340 0.8+ 0.7- 951210 359 0.0 1.4+ 960214 568 (2.1+ 0.9+) 010415 340 1.9- 0.6- 951210 359 2.0+ 1.0+ 960218 897 0.6- 0.4- 010415 340 (2.2- 1.0+) 951211 897 0.6+ 0.1+ 960218 897 0.7- 0.5- 010415 340 0.0 1.2- 951211 897 0.2- 0.6+ 960221 372 1.2+ 1.4+ 010415 340 1.3- 0.1+ 951211 897 1.1+ 1.2- 960222 691 0.6+ 0.7+ 010415 340 2.0- 0.5- 951216 422 (3.5+ 0.2+) 960222 900 0.6+ 0.2- 010415 300 0.3- 0.4+ 951218 897 0.6+ 1.7+ 960222 900 0.3+ 0.0 010415 300 0.5- 0.4+ 951218 897 0.3- 0.4+ 960223 046 0.1- 0.6+ 010415 300 0.4- 0.1+ 951220 422 0.4- 0.8+ 960223 046 0.1- 0.6+ 010415 300 0.1- 0.2- 951220 422 0.8+ 0.1- 960223 046 0.5- 0.8+ 010415 300 0.2- 0.3+ 951221 422 (2.6+ 0.5+) 960223 372 1.7- 0.5+ 010415 300 0.1- 0.5+ 951221 422 (3.0+ 0.1-) 960225 118 0.3+ 1.3+ 010415 367 1.7- 0.1+ 951225 422 0.8+ 0.7- 960226 118 0.2+ 0.6+ 010415 367 0.7- 0.5+ 951225 422 (2.2+ 0.4-) 960227 897 0.7- 0.2+ 010415 367 1.5- 0.5- 951225 422 1.0+ 0.3+ 960227 897 1.5+ 0.7- 010415 367 1.6- 0.3+ 951228 422 (4.2+ 0.0 ) 960228 372 1.1- 0.4- 010415 367 0.1- 1.1+ 951228 422 (2.9+ 0.9+) 960228 900 0.8- 0.1- 010417 921 0.3- 0.6- 951228 422 (2.8+ 0.4-) 960228 900 0.5- 0.1+ 010417 921 (2.7+ 0.9-) 951230 897 1.7+ 0.4- 960228 360 0.6- 0.1+ 010417 921 (2.1+ 1.0+) 951230 897 (2.5+ 0.1-) 960228 360 0.7- 0.0 010417 921 1.9+ 0.8+ 951230 897 (3.0+ 0.0 ) 960301 612 0.0 0.6+ 010419 402 0.5- 0.4+ 1996/ 960302 900 0.3+ 0.2+ 010419 402 0.0 0.4+ 960101 897 (3.0+ 0.5-) 960302 900 0.2+ 0.8+ 010419 402 0.0 0.4+ 960101 897 (2.5+ 1.1+) 960302 120 0.2+ 0.7- 010422 347 1.4+ 1.7+ 960101 897 1.5+ 0.9- 960302 120 0.4+ 0.8+ 010422 349 0.1+ 0.5+ 960127 897 0.2- 0.4+ 960302 120 0.1+ 0.1- 010422 349 0.3+ 0.3+ 960127 897 0.6- 0.9+ 960308 612 (1.8+ 5.4-) 010422 347 1.9+ 1.6+ 960127 900 0.3- 0.6- 960309 605 (4.8+ 3.2-) 010422 349 0.9+ 0.0 960127 900 0.8- 0.0 960309 605 0.4- 0.0 010422 347 0.5- 1.2+ 960131 897 (4.0- 1.2+) 960309 605 (2.1- 0.2-) 010422 349 0.8+ 0.2+ 960131 897 (2.3- 1.2-) 960310 118 0.8+ 0.5- 010422 340 0.5+ 0.8- 960131 897 (5.0- 0.1-) 960310 612 0.2- 1.4+ 010422 340 0.8+ 0.4+ 960201 611 (6.1- 0.9+) 960310 612 (3.9+ 1.4-) 010426 360 0.6+ 0.3+ 960201 611 (2.5- 1.5+) 960313 900 0.8- 0.3+ 010426 360 0.1+ 0.3+ 960201 422 1.9+ 0.6- 960313 897 1.4+ 0.1+ 010509 118 0.6- 1.0- 960201 422 0.2+ 0.5- 960313 897 0.2+ 0.4- 010509 118 0.4+ 0.9- 960202 568 0.6+ 0.6- 960313 897 0.5+ 1.5- 010509 118 1.4+ 1.1- 960202 422 0.9- 0.5- 960313 900 0.0 0.6- 010512 349 0.3- 0.0 960202 422 1.0- 0.0 960313 897 (0.4+ 3.3-) 010512 349 0.7+ 0.8- 960202 422 0.1- 1.5- 960315 605 (3.4- 0.5-) 010513 367 0.6+ 0.1- 960202 900 0.9- 0.8- 960315 605 (6.4+ 1.1-) 010513 367 0.3+ 0.0 960202 900 0.4- 0.7- 960317 557 0.1+ 0.5- 010513 367 1.3+ 0.6- 960203 422 0.2- 0.5- 960317 557 0.5- 0.2- 010516 360 0.1+ 0.7+ 960203 422 0.7- 1.2- 960317 557 0.6- 0.1+ 010516 360 0.4+ 0.1+ 960203 422 0.4+ 0.9- 960318 801 0.4- 0.6- 010516 360 0.4+ 0.2+ 960203 897 (1.9- 2.2-) 960318 801 0.1- 0.2- 010517 402 0.9- 0.5+ 960203 897 0.3- 0.9- 960322 897 (2.6+ 0.8-) 010517 402 (2.7+ 0.1-) 960205 900 0.7- 0.7+ 960419 691 0.4+ 0.5- 010517 402 0.5+ 0.8+ 960205 900 0.3+ 0.3- 960419 691 0.6+ 0.6- 010517 402 (2.7+ 0.3+) 960206 118 0.9+ 0.4- 960420 691 0.7+ 0.5- 2006/ 960206 118 0.0 1.0+ 960420 691 0.5+ 0.2- 060530 349 (3.0+ 5.1+) 960206 118 1.8+ 0.8+ 1997/ 060530 349 (2.0+ 2.4+) 960206 118 1.7+ 1.0+ 970415 568 0.9- 0.4+ 060530 349 (2.8+ 4.1+) 960206 897 0.5+ 0.6+ 970415 568 0.6- 0.4+ 060530 E12 0.4+ 1.8+ 960207 046 1.3+ 0.5- 970415 568 0.4+ 0.9+ 060530 E12 0.4- 1.1+ 960207 046 1.9+ 1.1- 970415 568 0.3- 0.2+ 060530 E12 0.1- 0.9+ 960207 046 0.2+ 0.5- 970415 568 1.0- 0.7+ 060530 E12 0.3- 0.4+ 960207 046 0.2- 1.1- 2000/ 060606 D87 0.8- 0.1- 960207 120 (2.1- 1.6+) 000727 809 (2.1- 0.1+) 060606 D87 1.2+ 0.6+ 960207 120 1.9+ 0.1- 000727 809 (2.1- 0.1+) 060606 D87 (2.7- 1.0+) 960207 120 1.2+ 0.9- 000727 809 2.0- 0.0 060606 D87 1.9- 0.2+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Director, Computing Section The late edition Syuichi Nakano 2006 June 20