OAA computing section circular NK 1537 P/SOHO (1999 R1 = 2003 R5 = 2007 R5)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 81 observations 1999 to 2007 including all SOHO C2 and C3 camera observations ignoring recent C3 camera gap. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 7.89 arc seconds. The comet will pass 0.27 AU, 0.19 AU and 0.30 AU from the Earth on the return of 2035, 2039 and 2043 respectively. See some notes on YC 2452 and YC 2565. Epoch = 2007 Sept.17.0 TT T = 2007 Sept.11.31922 +/- 0.00018 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 48.55248 +/- 0.02301 Node = 0.00552 +/- 0.02490 (2000.0) Inc. = 12.71290 +/- 0.00526 q = 0.0538712 +/- 0.0000055 AU e = 0.9785894 +/- 0.0000022 a = 2.5161013 +/- 0.0001455 AU n' = 0.24695163 +/- 0.00002143 P = 3.991 +/- 0.0003463 years (+/- 0.13 day) T = 1999 Sept. 5.52228 TT Epoch = 1999 Sept.19.0 TT Peri. = 43.34962 e = 0.9775864 Node = 5.32483 (2000.0) a = 2.5220130 AU Inc. = 13.75385 n'= 0.24608384 q = 0.0565274 AU P = 4.005 years T = 2003 Sept. 8.81870 TT Epoch = 2003 Aug. 29.0 TT Peri. = 43.63016 e = 0.9773995 Node = 5.03295 (2000.0) a = 2.5238175 AU Inc. = 13.67932 n'= 0.24581997 q = 0.0570395 AU P = 4.009 years The predicted orbit for the 2011 return is as follows: T = 2011 Sept. 7.13148 TT Epoch = 2011 Aug. 27.0 TT Peri. = 48.53463 e = 0.9787985 Node = 0.03943 (2000.0) a = 2.5145079 AU Inc. = 12.71941 n'= 0.24718639 q = 0.0533112 AU P = 3.987 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1999/ 030908 249 (8.2+ 38.3+)Y 070910 249 0.4- 8.5- Y 990904 249 2.2+ 0.1- Y 030908 249(84.7- 10.9-)Y 070910 249(18.4+ 17.1-)Y 990904 249 4.1- 0.1- Y 030908 249(15.5- 88.3+)Y 070910 249(24.6+ 4.4-)Y 990904 249 3.7- 1.3+ Y 030908 249(26.4+ 18.7+)Y 070910 249(22.6+ 14.3-)Y 990904 249 5.5- 2.3- Y 030908 249(49.3- 24.8-)Y 070910 249 11.7+ 8.3- Y 990904 249 1.3- 0.4+ Y 030908 249(69.5- 71.9+)Y 070910 249 (7.4+ 31.8-)Y 990904 249 3.3- 1.2- Y 030908 249 (1.5+ 47.0+)Y 070911 249(55.1+ 7.0-)Y 990905 249 6.4- 7.8+ Y 030908 249(28.7- 17.8+)Y 070911 249(29.0+ 13.3+)Y 990905 249 4.1+ 1.6- Y 030908 249(23.7- 6.2-)Y 070911 249 11.4+ 13.2- Y 990905 249 2.1- 8.1- Y 030908 249 14.7- 7.0+ Y 070911 249(27.3+ 54.1-)Y 990905 249 3.4- 0.3- Y 030908 249(29.2+ 16.5+)Y 070911 249(20.3+ 29.9+)Y 990905 249 10.5+ 4.5- Y 030908 249(36.3+ 43.3-)Y 070911 249 (0.9- 30.0+)Y 990905 249 1.3+ 8.1- Y 030908 249(30.0- 15.0-)Y 070911 249(40.6+ 35.4+)Y 990905 249(28.5- 11.0+)Y 030908 249 2.0+ 6.6- Y 070911 249 11.1- 1.1- Y 990905 249 7.4- 11.4+ Y 030908 249 3.5- 0.8- Y 070911 249(30.6+ 11.0+)Y 990905 249 (3.7+ 16.6-)Y 030908 249(30.3- 3.9-)Y 070911 249 3.4- 2.6+ Y 990905 249(15.9+ 5.4-)Y 030908 249(44.5- 16.1+)Y 070911 249 6.4+ 8.2+ Y 990905 249(19.1- 1.1+)Y 030908 249(17.1- 23.7+)Y 070911 249 (3.8+ 23.7+)Y 990905 249 (7.3+ 18.3-)Y 030908 249 (3.7+ 20.8+)Y 070911 249 13.7+ 10.3+ Y 990905 249 4.8- 7.0+ Y 030908 249 1.6- 1.5+ Y 070911 249(22.0+ 30.7+)Y 990905 249 6.1+ 2.7+ Y 030908 249 10.9- 2.3+ Y 070911 249 10.2- 9.8+ Y 990905 249(17.9+ 3.6-)Y 030908 249 3.7- 3.2+ Y 070911 249(16.0- 13.6+)Y 990905 249 4.5- 7.6- Y 030909 249(13.9- 16.4-)Y 070911 249 9.0- 6.5- Y 990905 249 2.6+ 4.6- Y 030909 249(65.9- 5.6+)Y 070911 249(16.1+ 40.6+)Y 990905 249 13.0+ 3.7+ Y 030909 249 13.2+ 10.4- Y 070911 249 5.4+ 11.0+ Y 990905 249 1.8- 7.2+ Y 030909 249 (1.5- 16.0+)Y 070911 249 9.6+ 14.5+ Y 990905 249(17.8+ 16.3-)Y 030909 249 10.7- 5.6- Y 070911 249(24.7+ 20.3+)Y 990905 249 12.5+ 4.7+ Y 030909 249 (8.3+ 15.4+)Y 070911 249 4.5+ 14.4+ Y 990905 249 0.5- 6.8- Y 030909 249 14.4- 0.3- Y 070911 249 (4.2+ 15.2+)Y 990905 249 (6.0+ 15.4-)Y 030909 249 2.7- 7.4- Y 070911 249 (2.0- 20.5+)Y 990905 249 4.5- 6.3- Y 030909 249(22.6+ 0.5+)Y 070911 249 6.9+ 3.8+ Y 990905 249 (5.1+ 25.5-)Y 030909 249 12.4- 12.0- Y 070911 249 7.9- 6.5+ Y 990905 249(16.5+ 19.8-)Y 030909 249(18.8- 23.0-)Y 070911 249 12.2- 13.8+ Y 990905 249 1.4+ 7.7- Y 030909 249(26.9+ 1.5-)Y 070911 249 12.9- 7.4+ Y 990905 249 1.8+ 0.4- Y 030909 249 5.6+ 9.6- Y 070911 249 6.3- 3.9+ Y 990905 249(10.8+ 15.9-)Y 030909 249 (7.0- 22.2-)Y 070911 249 14.6+ 11.9+ Y 990905 249 1.9- 8.5+ Y 030909 249(23.2- 20.3-)Y 070911 249(14.3- 18.8+)Y 990905 249 9.2+ 2.2- Y 030909 249(53.6- 25.9-)Y 070911 249(12.6- 25.6+)Y 990905 249(10.2+ 24.0-)Y 030909 249 5.1- 0.5- Y 070911 249(24.1- 22.6+)Y 990905 249(17.2+ 25.9-)Y 030909 249(55.7+ 10.3-)Y 070911 249(28.7- 21.6+)Y 990905 249 (6.9+ 17.3-)Y 030909 249(15.7+ 7.3-)Y 070911 249(35.7- 12.2+)Y 990905 249 10.9+ 4.9- Y 030909 249 3.1- 9.5- Y 070911 249 11.4- 6.8+ Y 990905 249 (7.4- 19.0-)Y 030909 249(23.7+ 14.0-)Y 070911 249(26.5- 18.5+)Y 990905 249 5.5- 13.7- Y 030909 249 (3.0+ 20.3-)Y 070911 249(23.1- 4.3+)Y 990906 249 11.0+ 14.2- Y 030909 249(29.1- 26.9-)Y 070911 249 (6.5- 24.0+)Y 990906 249 6.5+ 13.0+ Y 030909 249(27.6+ 29.6+)Y 070911 249 (6.5- 24.0+)Y 990906 249 (5.3- 17.7-)Y 030909 249(54.7- 12.3+)Y 070911 249 6.9- 13.6+ Y 990906 249 13.9+ 13.6- Y 2007/ 070911 249 (1.5- 35.0+)Y 990906 249 (1.6+ 23.7-)Y 070910 249(48.5+ 4.8-)Y 070911 249 (5.0+ 44.4+)Y 990906 249 (2.0- 42.4-)Y 070910 249(35.8+ 22.5-)Y 070911 249 7.3- 11.4+ Y 990906 249 13.8- 3.5- Y 070910 249(61.3+ 21.2-)Y 070911 249 (0.1- 17.5+)Y 990906 249 3.3+ 14.3- Y 070910 249(53.1+ 16.8+)Y 070912 249 (5.7+ 25.8-)Y 990906 249 11.2- 8.2- Y 070910 249(56.4+ 25.1-)Y 070912 249 10.7+ 2.1+ Y 2003/ 070910 249(22.6+ 13.4-)Y 070912 249(11.1- 44.9+)Y 030908 249 2.9+ 3.5- Y 070910 249(41.8+ 15.2-)Y 070912 249(11.1- 19.4+)Y 030908 249(17.5- 5.2-)Y 070910 249(35.2+ 16.7-)Y 070912 249(20.0- 16.9+)Y 030908 249 2.2+ 4.5- Y 070910 249(41.5+ 14.4-)Y 070912 249(26.4- 8.3+)Y 030908 249 7.5- 12.8+ Y 070910 249(57.6+ 25.9-)Y 070912 249 1.5- 13.6+ Y 030908 249 0.6+ 6.4- Y 070910 249(42.9+ 17.6-)Y 070912 249(17.3- 0.0 )Y 030908 249 1.1- 5.6- Y 070910 249(56.1+ 37.8-)Y 070912 249(35.7- 7.9+)Y 030908 249 10.5+ 2.5+ Y 070910 249(54.0+ 20.4-)Y 070912 249(52.9- 5.0+)Y 030908 249 0.9+ 5.2- Y 070910 249(38.3+ 4.5+)Y 070912 249(33.8- 9.2+)Y 030908 249 8.1- 1.7- Y 070910 249(44.9+ 40.6-)Y 070912 249 (3.3+ 16.6+)Y 030908 249 1.9- 5.1- Y 070910 249(40.6+ 1.5-)Y 030908 249 (4.2- 23.7+)Y 070910 249 8.5+ 4.4+ Y ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Director, Computing Section Syuichi Nakano 2007 Sept. 22