Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2163 Return Comets in 2014 (Predictions from former NK orbits)

D/1977 C1 (Skiff-Kosai) T = 2014 Feb. 10.52588 TT Epoch = 2014 Jan. 23.0 TT Peri. = 25.89729 e = 0.2688666 Node = 80.36950 (2000.0) a = 3.8288486 AU Inc. = 3.20150 n'= 0.13155331 q = 2.7993989 AU P = 7.492 years From 8 observations 1977 Feb. 13-Mar. 12, mean residual 0".30. Prediction from NK 501 orbit (cf. NK 946). 25D/Neujmin 2 T = 2014 Mar. 13.10944 TT Epoch = 2014 Mar. 4.0 TT Peri. = 215.08993 e = 0.5828234 Node = 307.62689 (2000.0) a = 3.0876027 AU Inc. = 5.32619 n'= 0.18166529 q = 1.2880754 AU P = 5.425 years From 108 observations 1916-1927, mean residual 2".09. Nongravitational solution gives T= 2013 Dec. 6.7 TT Prediction from NK 708 orbit. P/2005 JQ5 (Catalina) T = 2014 May 29.97921 TT Epoch = 2014 May 23.0 TT Peri. = 222.73989 e = 0.6934722 Node = 95.80762 (2000.0) a = 2.6943702 AU Inc. = 5.69164 n'= 0.22285284 q = 0.8258993 AU P = 4.423 years From 588 observations 2005 May 6-Dec. 29, mean residual 0".60. Prediction from NK 1329 orbit (cf. YC 2470, YC 2476, NK 1290). 75D/Kohoutek T = 2014 July 9.41262 TT Epoch = 2014 July 2.0 TT Peri. = 175.61885 e = 0.4963034 Node = 269.65743 (2000.0) a = 3.5436108 AU Inc. = 5.91244 n'= 0.14775257 q = 1.7849048 AU P = 6.671 years A1 = +3.267 A2 = +0.67192 From 83 observations 1975-1988, mean residual 1".04. Nongravitational parameters A1 = +3.27 +/- 0.04, A2 = +0.6719 +/- 0.0080. Although observations in 1980/81 were rejected, this orbit is better than previous prediction (See an orbit in NK 477). Prediction from NK 670 orbit. 72D/Denning-Fujikawa T = 2014 July 11.39402 TT Epoch = 2014 July 2.0 TT Peri. = 337.84114 e = 0.8190680 Node = 36.11538 (2000.0) a = 4.3342336 AU Inc. = 9.16841 n'= 0.10922841 q = 0.7842014 AU P = 9.023 years A1 = -0.001 A2 = +0.02365 From 34 observations 1881-1978, mean residual 1".62. Nongravitational parameters A1 = -0.00 +/- 0.04, A2 = +0.0237 +/- 0.0004. Prediction from NK 730 orbit (cf. NK 487). P/2003 O3 (LINEAR) T = 2014 July 24.71461 TT Epoch = 2014 Aug. 11.0 TT Peri. = 0.74777 e = 0.5970444 Node = 341.46182 (2000.0) a = 3.1099789 AU Inc. = 8.34879 n'= 0.17970821 q = 1.2531835 AU P = 5.484 years From 259 observations 2003 July 30-Dec. 15, mean residual 0".64. Prediction from NK 1027 orbit (cf. YC 2401). 11P/Tempel-Swift-LINEAR T = 2014 Aug. 26.78687 TT Epoch = 2014 Aug. 11.0 TT Peri. = 164.06544 e = 0.5459107 Node = 240.43658 (2000.0) a = 3.4103098 AU Inc. = 13.57584 n'= 0.15649963 q = 1.5485853 AU P = 6.298 years A1 = +0.132 A2 = -0.01199 From 53 observations 1908-2002, mean residual 1".20. Nongravitational parameters A1 = +0.13 +/- 0.01, A2 = -0.0120 +/- 0.0004. Prediction from NK 1197 orbit (cf. NK 686). P/1819 W1 (Blanpain) T = 2014 Aug. 28.25601 TT Epoch = 2014 Aug. 11.0 TT Peri. = 9.85205 e = 0.6846747 Node = 68.93821 (2000.0) a = 3.0471886 AU Inc. = 5.90000 n'= 0.18529132 q = 0.9608556 AU P = 5.319 years From 292 observations 1819-2004, weighting mean residual 0".70. Prediction from NK 1168 orbit (cf. YC 2460). 135P/Shoemaker-Levy 8 T = 2014 Nov. 1.59640 TT Epoch = 2014 Oct. 30.0 TT Peri. = 21.94751 e = 0.2951275 Node = 213.10347 (2000.0) a = 3.8016719 AU Inc. = 6.06204 n'= 0.13296646 q = 2.6796939 AU P = 7.412 years From 94 observations 1992-1999, mean residual 0".91. Prediction from NK 1048 orbit (cf. NK 579, NK 643). 80P/Peters-Hartley T = 2014 Nov. 10.05329 TT Epoch = 2014 Oct. 30.0 TT Peri. = 339.13280 e = 0.5990084 Node = 259.88907 (2000.0) a = 4.0218519 AU Inc. = 29.92315 n'= 0.12219824 q = 1.6127290 AU P = 8.066 years A1 = +0.677 A2 = -0.07676 From 36 observations 1982-1998, mean residual 1".04. Nongravitational parameters A1 = +0.68 +/- 0.30, A2 = -0.0768 +/- 0.0014. Prediction from NK 940 orbit (cf. NK 550). See a linked orbit from 1846-1990 in NK 2075.

Associate of Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams Syuichi Nakano 2011 Nov. 6

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