Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2354 C/2012 S1 (ISON)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 287 observations 2011 Dec. 28 to 2012 Oct. 12. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.36 arc second. The comet will pass 0.073 AU from Mars on 2013 Oct. 1, 0.43 AU from the Earth on 2013 Dec. 27.0 and 2.20 AU from Juipter on 2014 July 25 UT. The comet will be a bright object as shown below on an ephemeris. Epoch = 2013 Dec. 14.0 TT T = 2013 Nov. 28.78671 +/- 0.02089 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 345.56452 +/- 0.00170 Node = 295.65343 +/- 0.00232 (2000.0) Inc. = 62.39463 +/- 0.01169 q = 0.0124448 +/- 0.0000040 AU e = 1.0000014 +/- 0.0000004 1/a = -0.0001157 +/- 0.0000318 1/AU origin = +0.000042 (Q= 6) future = -0.000012 The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2011/ 120925 850 0.1- 0.4+ 121004 F65 0.3+ 0.2- 111228 G96 0.1- 0.1- 120925 H06 0.1- 0.4+ 121004 F65 0.3+ 0.1+ 111228 G96 0.5+ 0.3+ 120925 H06 0.0 0.2- 121005 071 0.6+ 0.1- 111228 G96 0.0 0.1- 120925 H06 0.0 0.1+ 121005 071 0.1+ 0.0 2012/ 120925 H06 0.1+ 0.2+ 121005 071 0.2+ 0.4+ 120128 F51 0.0 0.2- 120925 H06 0.1+ 0.2- 121005 071 0.2- 0.0 120128 F51 0.0 0.3- 120925 H06 0.0 0.3- 121005 071 0.2+ 0.1+ 120128 F51 0.1- 0.5+ 120925 H06 0.2- 0.2- 121005 071 0.4- 0.2+ 120921 D00 0.1+ 0.3+ 120925 H06 0.1+ 0.2- 121005 071 0.1+ 0.3+ 120921 D00 0.2- 0.1+ 120925 372 0.5- 0.1+ 121005 071 0.2- 0.3+ 120921 D00 0.2+ 0.2- 120925 372 0.1+ 0.2+ 121005 071 0.2- 0.3+ 120921 D00 0.5- 0.2+ 120925 372 0.4+ 0.4+ 121005 071 0.0 0.1+ 120921 H01 0.1+ 0.0 120926 372 0.5+ 0.2+ 121005 071 0.3+ 0.0 120921 H06 0.2+ 0.1+ 120926 372 0.6+ 0.2+ 121005 071 0.1- 0.2+ 120921 H01 0.0 0.0 120926 372 0.6+ 0.1- 121005 071 0.0 0.1+ 120921 H06 0.2+ 0.1+ 120926 C42 0.4+ 0.2- 121005 071 0.1+ 0.0 120921 H06 0.2+ 0.2+ 120926 C42 0.5+ 0.3- 121005 071 0.0 0.0 120921 H01 0.1+ 0.1+ 120926 C42 0.5- 0.5- 121005 071 0.1- 0.1+ 120921 H01 0.2+ 0.1+ 120927 J24 0.4+ 0.4+ 121005 071 0.2+ 0.3+ 120921 188 0.1- 0.2+ 120927 J24 0.3+ 0.3+ 121005 071 0.0 0.1- 120921 188 0.0 0.1+ 120927 J24 0.8- 0.5+ 121005 071 0.0 0.3+ 120921 188 0.1- 0.2+ 120927 372 0.1- 0.0 121005 071 0.0 0.1+ 120922 J95 0.1- 0.2- 120927 372 0.3+ 0.1+ 121005 071 0.0 0.2+ 120922 J95 0.1+ 0.1- 120927 372 0.1+ 0.0 121005 071 0.1+ 0.2- 120922 J95 0.0 0.1- 120927 C42 0.2+ 0.1+ 121005 071 0.5- 0.1- 120922 J95 0.1- 0.1- 120927 C42 0.3- 0.7+ 121005 071 0.0 0.2+ 120922 704 (0.2+ 2.1+) 120927 C42 0.6+ 0.1+ 121005 071 0.0 0.3+ 120922 704 0.1+ 0.1+ 120928 C23 0.4- 0.0 121005 071 0.1+ 0.1+ 120922 704 0.7- 0.0 120928 C23 0.6+ 0.4+ 121005 071 0.0 0.1+ 120922 704 0.2+ 1.5+ 120928 585 0.0 0.5- 121005 071 0.3- 0.3+ 120922 H01 0.2+ 0.1+ 120928 585 0.4+ 0.5- 121005 071 0.0 0.0 120922 H01 0.1+ 0.1+ 120928 585 0.4- 0.2+ 121005 071 0.1- 0.1- 120922 H06 0.2+ 0.3+ 120928 585 0.5+ 0.2- 121005 071 0.5- 0.1+ 120922 704 1.1+ 0.4+ 120928 585 0.2+ 0.6- 121005 071 0.0 0.1+ 120922 H06 0.1- 0.2+ 120928 585 0.4+ 0.2- 121005 071 0.1+ 0.0 120922 H01 0.2+ 0.1+ 120928 585 1.0+ 1.2- 121005 071 0.1+ 0.2+ 120922 H06 0.3+ 0.0 120928 958 0.3- 0.5- 121005 071 0.0 0.2+ 120922 H01 0.1+ 0.1+ 120928 958 1.7- 0.5- 121005 071 0.9+ 0.4+ 120922 H06 0.3- 0.2+ 120928 958 1.4- 0.5- 121005 071 0.1+ 0.2+ 120922 D35 0.0 0.7- 120928 F65 0.3+ 0.2+ 121005 J01 0.3+ 0.2+ 120922 D35 0.1+ 0.3+ 120928 F65 0.3+ 0.3+ 121005 071 0.2- 0.4- 120922 D35 0.3+ 0.2+ 120929 B18 0.5+ 0.3+ 121005 071 0.1- 0.1+ 120922 D35 0.0 0.0 120929 B18 0.2- 0.4+ 121005 J01 0.7+ 0.1+ 120922 D35 0.1+ 0.0 120929 B18 0.1+ 0.1+ 121005 J01 0.6+ 0.3+ 120923 850 0.4- 0.2+ 120929 B18 0.1+ 0.5- 121006 071 0.2- 0.4- 120923 850 0.1- 0.1+ 120929 C10 0.6- 0.6- 121006 071 0.5+ 0.4- 120923 850 0.1- 0.1+ 120929 J24 0.9+ 0.5+ 121006 071 0.0 0.1+ 120923 H21 0.2- 0.1- 120929 C10 0.0 0.3- 121006 071 0.1+ 0.2- 120923 850 0.1- 0.2+ 120929 J24 0.4+ 0.3+ 121006 071 0.3+ 0.1- 120923 H06 0.3+ 0.4- 120929 J24 0.2- 0.3- 121006 071 0.1+ 0.4- 120923 H21 0.1- 0.1+ 120929 B18 0.1- 0.1+ 121006 071 0.2- 0.1+ 120923 H21 0.1- 0.0 120929 B18 0.0 0.7+ 121006 071 0.0 0.0 120923 H21 0.0 0.1- 120930 B18 0.1+ 0.3- 121006 071 0.2+ 0.2- 120923 H06 0.4- 0.0 120930 J01 0.1+ 0.0 121006 071 0.3- 0.4- 120923 H01 0.2+ 0.1+ 120930 J01 0.2+ 0.2+ 121006 071 0.5- 0.1- 120923 H36 0.4- 0.0 120930 J01 0.1+ 0.3+ 121006 071 0.2- 0.1+ 120923 H01 0.1+ 0.1+ 120930 349 0.2- 0.1- 121006 071 0.7- 0.2+ 120923 H01 0.3+ 0.1+ 120930 349 0.0 0.3- 121006 071 0.1- 0.0 120923 H01 0.2+ 0.1+ 121001 B18 0.2+ 0.1+ 121006 071 0.1- 0.0 120923 H06 0.3+ 0.8- 121001 B18 0.2- 0.0 121006 071 0.1- 0.0 120923 H36 0.1+ 0.1- 121001 B18 0.4+ 0.4- 121006 071 0.1- 0.3+ 120924 A71 0.3- 0.2+ 121001 B18 0.1+ 0.0 121006 071 0.2- 0.1+ 120924 A71 0.0 0.1+ 121001 B18 0.6- 0.2+ 121006 071 0.0 0.0 120924 A71 0.3+ 0.3- 121001 958 0.2- 1.2+ 121006 071 0.0 0.0 120924 A71 0.1+ 0.4- 121001 958 1.2- 0.6- 121006 071 0.0 0.2+ 120924 A71 0.1+ 0.1+ 121001 958 0.7- 0.6+ 121006 071 0.0 0.0 120924 H06 0.4- 0.0 121001 G40 0.3+ 0.4- 121006 071 0.1- 0.0 120924 H06 0.7- 0.2+ 121001 G40 0.2+ 0.5- 121006 071 0.1- 0.1+ 120924 H06 0.2- 0.1+ 121002 B18 0.1+ 0.4+ 121006 071 0.1- 0.1+ 120924 H06 0.3- 0.0 121002 B18 0.4- 0.0 121006 071 0.1+ 0.0 120924 D54 (2.0- 1.2+) 121002 B18 0.2+ 0.1+ 121006 071 0.3- 0.0 120924 D54 0.2- 0.3+ 121002 B18 0.2- 0.1+ 121006 071 0.2- 0.1- 120924 D54 0.5- 0.6- 121002 B18 0.1+ 0.2+ 121006 071 0.2- 0.2- 120924 D54 0.2+ 0.0 121002 B18 0.0 0.0 121006 118 0.2- 0.2+ 120924 D54 0.3- 0.6- 121002 958 1.9+ 0.2+ 121006 071 0.2- 0.0 120925 114 0.1- 0.0 121002 958 0.1- 0.4- 121006 118 0.5- 0.1- 120925 114 0.1+ 0.1+ 121002 213 0.9+ 0.2+ 121006 118 0.5- 0.2+ 120925 D00 0.1- 0.4+ 121002 J08 0.1+ 0.2- 121009 568 0.3+ 0.2- 120925 114 0.1- 0.1- 121002 213 0.1- 0.0 121009 568 0.2+ 0.2- 120925 114 0.0 0.2- 121002 958 0.2- 0.3+ 121009 568 0.4+ 0.2- 120925 D00 0.4- 0.0 121002 213 0.1+ 0.1- 121010 H06 0.3- 0.1- 120925 114 0.2+ 0.2+ 121002 J08 1.3- 1.5+ 121010 H06 0.2+ 0.1- 120925 D00 0.5- 0.1+ 121003 958 0.3+ 0.3+ 121011 C23 0.1+ 0.8+ 120925 D00 0.1- 0.1- 121003 958 1.7- 0.1- 121011 C23 0.7- 1.3- 120925 557 0.1+ 0.2- 121003 958 0.4- 0.4- 121011 C23 0.9- 0.9- 120925 557 0.0 0.2- 121003 300 0.2- 0.2+ 121011 850 0.1- 0.3+ 120925 557 0.1+ 0.2- 121003 300 0.5- 0.0 121011 850 0.0 0.5- 120925 557 0.0 0.1- 121003 300 0.0 0.0 121011 850 1.2- 0.1+ 120925 557 0.1+ 0.1- 121003 300 0.1- 0.0 121012 113 0.4- 0.3- 120925 557 0.1- 0.0 121003 300 0.3- 0.8+ 121012 113 0.4- 0.5- 120925 557 0.0 0.2- 121004 B74 0.0 0.1+ 121012 113 0.3- 0.4- 120925 557 0.0 0.1- 121004 B74 0.3- 0.3+ 121012 411 0.2- 0.4+ 120925 557 0.1+ 0.2- 121004 B74 0.3- 0.2+ 121012 411 0.2+ 0.4+ 120925 557 0.0 0.3- 121004 I99 0.6- 0.6- 121012 411 0.1- 0.4+ 120925 557 0.0 0.1- 121004 I99 1.1+ 0.1+ 121012 367 0.7- 0.0 120925 850 0.3+ 0.4+ 121004 I99 1.5- 0.5- 121012 367 0.5- 0.0 120925 850 0.0 0.4+ 121004 F65 0.3+ 0.1+ 121012 367 0.3- 0.0 ( ) -------- Rejected Obs. C/2012 S1 (ISON) Orbit by S. Nakano NK 2354 (2012) At Astronomical Twilight 2013/2014 R. A.(2000) Decl. Delta r Daily motion Elong. Phase Mag. PA/Tail (Lati.= +35.5) 20h TT h m o , AU AU , o o o m1 o o h o A o Nov. 1 11 16.63 +05 48.7 1.207 0.977 90.0/118 51.6 52.8 5.8 294/6.84 +32.3 287.7 2 11 21.97 +05 06.8 1.180 0.952 94.3/118 51.1 54.2 5.6 294/7.13 +31.7 288.2 3 11 27.55 +04 22.8 1.153 0.927 98.9/118 50.6 55.7 5.5 294/7.44 +31.1 288.7 4 11 33.39 +03 36.4 1.127 0.902 103.8/118 49.9 57.2 5.3 294/7.76 +30.4 289.2 5 11 39.51 +02 47.6 1.101 0.876 109.1/118 49.2 58.9 5.1 294/8.09 +29.6 289.7 6 11 45.93 +01 56.2 1.076 0.850 114.6/118 48.4 60.6 5.0 294/8.44 +28.8 290.2 7 11 52.67 +01 02.2 1.051 0.824 120.5/118 47.5 62.4 4.8 294/8.81 +27.8 290.6 8 11 59.75 +00 05.3 1.028 0.797 126.7/118 46.5 64.3 4.6 293/9.18 +26.8 291.0 9 12 07.20 -00 54.4 1.005 0.770 133.2/118 45.4 66.3 4.4 293/9.57 +25.6 291.3 10 12 15.04 -01 57.1 0.984 0.742 140.1/118 44.2 68.4 4.2 293/9.97 +24.4 291.7 11 12 23.30 -03 02.7 0.963 0.714 147.2/118 42.9 70.6 4.0 293/10.4 +23.0 291.9 12 12 32.00 -04 11.4 0.944 0.685 154.5/118 41.4 72.8 3.7 292/10.8 +21.5 292.2 13 12 41.16 -05 22.9 0.926 0.656 162.1/117 39.9 75.2 3.5 292/11.2 +19.9 292.4 14 12 50.82 -06 37.3 0.910 0.626 169.8/117 38.2 77.8 3.3 291/11.6 +18.2 292.5 15 13 00.99 -07 54.2 0.896 0.595 177.5/117 36.4 80.4 3.0 291/12.0 +16.3 292.7 16 13 11.69 -09 13.4 0.883 0.563 185.1/116 34.4 83.1 2.7 290/12.3 +14.4 292.7 17 13 22.96 -10 34.4 0.873 0.531 192.6/116 32.4 85.9 2.5 289/12.7 +12.3 292.7 18 13 34.80 -11 56.8 0.865 0.497 199.9/115 30.2 88.8 2.1 288/13.0 +10.1 292.6 19 13 47.22 -13 19.8 0.859 0.462 206.8/114 27.9 91.8 1.8 287/13.2 +7.8 292.5 20 14 00.24 -14 42.6 0.856 0.426 213.4/113 25.5 94.8 1.5 285/13.4 +5.3 292.3 21 14 13.87 -16 04.5 0.856 0.389 219.7/112 23.0 97.8 1.1 284/13.4 +2.8 292.1 22 14 28.13 -17 24.3 0.860 0.350 225.9/110 20.3 100.9 0.6 281/13.4 +0.2 291.7 23 14 43.03 -18 40.9 0.867 0.308 232.5/109 17.6 103.8 0.1 279/13.3 -2.5 291.3 24 14 58.64 -19 53.1 0.879 0.263 240.4/107 14.8 106.6 -0.6 276/13.1 -5.2 290.7 25 15 15.08 -20 59.2 0.896 0.215 252.5/104 11.9 108.9 -1.4 272/12.8 -8.1 290.0 26 15 32.70 -21 56.7 0.919 0.161 278.3/100 8.8 110.3 -2.6 266/12.4 -11.1 289.1 27 15 52.52 -22 39.2 0.952 0.096 416.2/ 80 5.3 108.4 -4.8 255/12.1 -14.4 287.8 28 16 21.80 -21 13.9 0.993 0.014 264.1/ 0 0.7 61.9 -13.1 76/9.22 -18.5 283.3 29 16 21.86 -16 49.8 0.922 0.102 150.7/348 4.8 126.8 -4.6 356/11.3 -15.2 280.1 30 16 19.61 -14 22.7 0.875 0.166 128.2/348 7.6 128.1 -2.6 346/11.8 -12.4 278.9 Dec. 1 16 17.75 -12 17.4 0.837 0.219 118.3/349 10.2 127.5 -1.5 341/12.5 -9.9 278.1 2 16 16.21 -10 21.3 0.804 0.267 113.6/350 12.6 126.3 -0.7 338/13.2 -7.5 277.4 3 16 14.93 -08 29.3 0.773 0.312 111.5/352 15.0 125.0 -0.1 337/14.0 -5.3 276.7 4 16 13.86 -06 38.9 0.745 0.353 111.3/353 17.3 123.7 0.3 335/14.7 -3.0 276.0 5 16 12.96 -04 48.4 0.719 0.392 112.3/354 19.7 122.2 0.7 334/15.5 -0.8 275.3 6 16 12.23 -02 56.7 0.694 0.430 114.3/356 22.0 120.7 1.0 334/16.2 +1.4 274.6 7 16 11.63 -01 02.7 0.671 0.465 117.1/357 24.4 119.2 1.3 333/16.9 +3.5 273.8 8 16 11.17 +00 54.2 0.648 0.500 120.7/358 26.7 117.6 1.5 333/17.7 +5.7 273.0 9 16 10.82 +02 54.7 0.627 0.533 124.9/358 29.2 115.9 1.8 333/18.4 +7.9 272.1 10 16 10.58 +04 59.6 0.607 0.566 129.7/359 31.6 114.2 1.9 333/19.2 +10.1 271.1 11 16 10.44 +07 09.3 0.587 0.597 135.1/360 34.1 112.4 2.1 333/19.9 +12.3 270.0 12 16 10.41 +09 24.4 0.569 0.628 141.0/ 0 36.7 110.5 2.3 333/20.6 +14.5 268.7 13 16 10.48 +11 45.4 0.552 0.658 147.4/ 1 39.3 108.6 2.4 333/21.2 +16.8 267.4 14 16 10.64 +14 12.8 0.535 0.688 154.2/ 1 42.0 106.6 2.5 333/21.9 +19.0 265.8 15 16 10.90 +16 46.9 0.519 0.716 161.3/ 2 44.8 104.4 2.6 333/22.4 +21.3 264.1 16 16 11.26 +19 28.1 0.505 0.745 168.6/ 2 47.7 102.2 2.7 333/22.9 +23.6 262.2 17 16 11.72 +22 16.6 0.492 0.772 176.1/ 3 50.6 99.9 2.8 333/23.3 +25.8 260.1 18 16 12.29 +25 12.5 0.479 0.800 183.6/ 3 53.7 97.4 2.9 333/23.6 +28.0 257.7 19 16 12.97 +28 15.9 0.468 0.826 190.8/ 3 56.8 94.9 3.0 333/23.8 +30.2 255.1 20 16 13.77 +31 26.4 0.458 0.853 197.7/ 3 60.0 92.3 3.1 333/23.9 +32.3 252.1 21 16 14.71 +34 43.8 0.450 0.879 203.9/ 4 63.3 89.5 3.2 333/23.9 +34.3 248.9 22 16 15.79 +38 07.3 0.443 0.904 209.4/ 4 66.6 86.7 3.3 333/23.7 +36.2 245.3 23 16 17.05 +41 36.2 0.437 0.929 213.8/ 4 70.0 83.8 3.4 333/23.4 +37.9 241.4 24 16 18.50 +45 09.4 0.433 0.954 217.0/ 4 73.4 80.9 3.5 333/23.0 +39.3 237.2 25 16 20.18 +48 45.6 0.430 0.979 218.8/ 5 76.7 77.9 3.6 333/22.5 +40.5 232.7 26 16 22.15 +52 23.6 0.429 1.003 219.1/ 5 80.1 75.0 3.7 332/21.9 +41.5 228.1 27 16 24.46 +56 01.7 0.430 1.027 217.9/ 6 83.4 72.0 3.8 332/21.2 +42.1 223.2 28 16 27.22 +59 38.5 0.432 1.051 215.2/ 6 86.7 69.1 3.9 332/20.4 +42.4 218.4 29 16 30.56 +63 12.4 0.436 1.074 211.2/ 7 89.8 66.2 4.0 332/19.5 +42.4 213.5 30 16 34.69 +66 41.9 0.441 1.098 205.9/ 8 92.8 63.5 4.1 331/18.6 +42.1 208.8 31 16 39.96 +70 05.8 0.448 1.121 199.6/ 9 95.7 60.8 4.3 332/17.7 +41.5 204.3 Jan. 1 16 46.91 +73 22.7 0.457 1.143 192.4/ 10 98.4 58.3 4.4 332/16.9 +40.7 200.1 m1 = 5.5 + 5 log Delta + 10.0 log r Lati. = +35.5 Note: Comet can be observed in the evening sky after 2013 Dec. 16.
Associate of Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams Syuichi Nakano 2012 Oct. 15