Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2482 102P/Shoemaker 1
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 55 observations 1999 to 2013, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 0.84 arc second. Re-observed positions in 2013 show the residuals of -135" for R. A. and -150" for Decl. from the prediction in NK 1924 (= HICQ 2012) with the delta-T correction = +0.20 day. See the previous orbits in NK 511, NK 563, NK 632, NK 945, NK 1150, NK 1356 and NK 1924. Epoch = 2013 Aug. 16.0 TT T = 2013 Sept. 1.26046 +/- 0.00524 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 18.78864 +/- 0.00147 Node = 339.85726 +/- 0.00024 (2000.0) Inc. = 26.24764 +/- 0.00007 q = 1.9684693 +/- 0.0000128 AU e = 0.4729050 +/- 0.0000031 a = 3.7345626 +/- 0.0000088 AU n' = 0.13656659 +/- 0.00000048 P = 7.217 +/- 0.0000254 years A1 = -0.164 +/- 0.633 A2 = -0.19448 +/- 0.00943 T = 1999 Mar. 16.85167 TT Epoch = 1999 Mar. 3.0 TT Peri. = 18.66202 e = 0.4714135 Node = 339.97757 (2000.0) a = 3.7451500 AU Inc. = 26.26009 n'= 0.13598789 q = 1.9796359 AU P = 7.248 years T = 2006 June 6.80100 TT Epoch = 2006 May 25.0 TT Peri. = 18.54241 e = 0.4721471 Node = 339.94767 (2000.0) a = 3.7394402 AU Inc. = 26.25215 n'= 0.13629947 q = 1.9738744 AU P = 7.231 years The predicted orbit for the 2021 return is as follows: T = 2021 Jan. 22.41784 TT Epoch = 2021 Jan. 26.0 TT Peri. = 20.54012 e = 0.4571773 Node = 339.36533 (2000.0) a = 3.8133027 AU Inc. = 25.88471 n'= 0.13235859 q = 2.0699473 AU P = 7.446 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1999/ 060818 461 0.4+ 0.8+ 060908 J95 0.4- 0.5+ 991231 461 0.3+ 0.5+ 060818 461 0.7+ 0.7+ 060908 J95 0.8+ 0.2+ 991231 461 (4.7- 1.4-) 060818 461 1.1+ 0.7+ 060918 349 1.5- 0.5+ 991231 461 (5.0- 0.7+) 060821 J95 1.1- 0.2+ 060918 349 1.4- 0.8+ 2000/ 060822 J95 0.3- 0.2- 060922 A32 1.3- 0.4+ 000101 461 0.8+ 1.0+ 060822 J95 0.1- 0.4- 060922 A32 1.2- 1.2- 000101 461 1.1- 1.3- 060822 A02 (2.6- 0.5+) 061016 215 0.0 1.1- 2006/ 060822 A02 1.8- 0.3- 061111 J97 0.0 0.6- 060724 J95 0.1+ 1.3+ 060822 A02 0.8- 0.6- 061124 349 1.0+ 0.5- 060724 J95 0.3- 0.2- 060823 A02 0.8- 1.5+ 061124 349 1.5+ 0.7- 060724 J95 1.4+ 0.7- 060823 A02 0.2- 0.1+ 061124 349 1.6+ 0.9- 060725 J95 0.1+ 0.1- 060823 213 0.4+ 0.4+ 061130 204 0.6+ 0.4+ 060725 J95 1.5- 0.1- 060823 213 0.4+ 0.5+ 061130 204 0.7+ 0.0 060725 J95 0.8- 1.8- 060823 A02 0.9+ 0.3+ 2013/ 060728 J95 0.5- 1.1- 060823 213 0.6+ 0.6+ 130411 Q62 0.2+ 1.0- 060728 J95 0.4- 0.6- 060825 J95 0.2+ 0.5- 130411 Q62 0.5+ 0.8- 060728 J95 0.1- 0.8- 060825 J95 0.4+ 0.5+ 130411 Q62 0.5+ 0.8- 060808 J95 0.2- 0.8+ 060825 J95 0.2- 0.1- 130416 Q62 0.1- 0.7+ 060808 J95 1.1+ 1.4- 060902 442 1.6- 1.5+ 130416 Q62 0.5+ 0.1- 060808 850 1.9+ 0.3- 060902 442 1.5- 1.4+ 130416 Q62 0.3+ 0.3+ 060808 850 1.6+ 0.2+ 060908 J95 0.7+ 0.2+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams Syuichi Nakano 2013 Apr. 23