Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 2538 184P/Lovas 2
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 69 observations 1986 to 2013. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 1.02 arc seconds. The 2013 observations show the residuals of +18" for R. A. and +6" for Decl. from the prediction in NK 1912 (= HICQ 2012) with the delta-T correction = -0.008 day. The comet will pass 0.27 AU near Jupiter on 2015 Nov. See the previous orbits in NK 650, NK 946, NK 1412 and NK 1912. Epoch = 2013 Aug. 16.0 TT T = 2013 July 28.46586 +/- 0.00017 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 78.07036 +/- 0.00172 Node = 277.73592 +/- 0.00172 (2000.0) Inc. = 1.55134 +/- 0.00004 q = 1.3940189 +/- 0.0000028 AU e = 0.6042365 +/- 0.0000008 a = 3.5223535 +/- 0.0000028 AU n' = 0.14909211 +/- 0.00000018 P = 6.611 +/- 0.0000080 years T = 1986 Sept. 2.25147 TT Epoch = 1986 Sept. 7.0 TT Peri. = 71.39724 e = 0.5927610 Node = 283.75521 (2000.0) a = 3.5821434 AU Inc. = 1.52937 n'= 0.14537496 q = 1.4587885 AU P = 6.780 years [ T = 1993 June 12.98666 TT Epoch = 1993 June 22.0 TT Peri. = 71.45107 e = 0.5919278 Node = 283.68611 (2000.0) a = 3.5861562 AU Inc. = 1.52789 n'= 0.14513103 q = 1.4634106 AU P = 6.791 years ] [ T = 2000 Mar. 24.89586 TT Epoch = 2000 Apr. 6.0 TT Peri. = 71.61838 e = 0.5933484 Node = 283.56005 (2000.0) a = 3.5772990 AU Inc. = 1.52972 n'= 0.14567037 q = 1.4547144 AU P = 6.766 years ] T = 2006 Dec. 12.44843 TT Epoch = 2006 Dec. 11.0 TT Peri. = 77.39525 e = 0.6041140 Node = 278.30808 (2000.0) a = 3.5245349 AU Inc. = 1.55297 n'= 0.14895372 q = 1.3953141 AU P = 6.617 years The predicted orbit for the 2020 return is as follows: T = 2020 Oct. 26.19292 TT Epoch = 2020 Nov. 7.0 TT Peri. = 186.43536 e = 0.5509308 Node = 173.25588 (2000.0) a = 3.7929070 AU Inc. = 4.57272 n'= 0.13342763 q = 1.7032776 AU P = 7.387 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1986/ 870103 691 1.2+ 0.3+ 070113 215 1.0+ 1.9+ 861130 561(13.6- 6.5+) 870103 691 1.4+ 1.4- 070113 232 (3.1+ 1.7-) 861130 561 (6.3- 3.1+) 870125 691 1.8+ 0.8- 070113 232 (2.1+ 0.5-) 861202 801 (3.9- 10.0+) 870125 691 1.8+ 1.2+ 070113 232 (2.7+ 0.8-) 861202 691 0.8- 0.2+ 870125 691 1.6+ 0.5- 070114 349 0.6+ 0.9- 861202 691 0.4- 0.6+ 870130 691 2.0+ 0.1- 070114 349 0.4- 0.0 861202 691 0.6- 0.5- 870130 691 1.6+ 0.5- 070115 703 0.3+ 1.0+ 861202 892(12.1- 5.1-)Y 870130 691 1.1+ 0.6- 070115 703 0.0 1.5+ 861202 892(12.1- 7.1-)Y 870301 691 2.6+ 0.1- 070115 703 0.1- 0.6+ 861203 372 0.6+ 2.0- 870301 691 2.7+ 1.7+ 070115 703 0.3- 1.0+ 861203 323 0.4- 0.4- 870303 691 (3.2+ 0.9-) 070115 703 0.5- 0.2- 861203 372 0.5- 0.7- 870303 691 (3.2+ 0.6+) 070115 703 0.0 0.0 861203 561 (8.6- 7.7+) 2007/ 070115 703 0.9+ 1.3+ 861204 688 0.3- 2.3- 070109 703 1.2+ 1.5+ 070115 703 1.1- 0.4+ 861204 688 (3.8+ 6.1-) 070109 703 (2.3+ 1.0+) 070115 703 1.9- 0.1+ 861204 688 (5.2+ 3.2+) 070109 703 (2.2+ 0.5+) 070115 703 0.7- 0.7- 861204 688 1.1+ 0.3- 070109 703 0.3+ 0.3- 070115 703 0.5+ 0.2- 861204 691 0.8- 1.1+ 070109 G96 0.1- 0.1+ 070115 703 0.9- 0.1+ 861204 691 1.7- 0.8+ 070109 G96 0.5- 0.1+ 070120 J76 0.0 0.8- 861204 691 0.0 0.3+ 070109 G96 0.4- 0.1- 070120 J76 (3.1+ 1.4+) 861204 892 (0.5+ 3.1-) 070109 G96 0.8- 0.3+ 070120 J76 0.2- 0.5+ 861204 892 2.1+ 0.1+ 070110 G96 1.0- 0.6+ 2013/ 861204 372(11.4+ 1.3+)Y 070110 G96 0.4- 0.2+ 130604 W86 1.5+ 0.4- 861205 801 0.2+ 2.5- 070110 G96 0.1+ 0.7+ 130604 W86 1.1+ 0.1+ 861205 373 2.3- 2.3+ 070110 734 0.2- 0.4+ 130604 W86 0.8+ 0.0 861205 373 (3.5- 2.7-) 070110 734 0.8- 0.1- 130703 Q62 0.3- 0.1- 861205 399 2.2- 2.3- 070110 734 0.9- 1.1- 130703 Q62 0.2- 0.3- 861206 399 1.3+ 0.4+ 070110 854 1.3- 0.8+ 130703 Q62 0.1+ 0.4- 861207 372 1.4- 1.9+ Y 070110 854 0.9- 1.1+ 130712 Q62 0.5- 0.0 1987/ 070110 854 0.2+ 0.7+ 130712 Q62 0.7- 0.1- 870103 691 (4.5+ 1.8-) 070111 372 0.0 0.1- 130712 Q62 0.9- 0.2- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2013 July 17