Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda)                 NK 3031 



     P/2015 X1 (PANSTARRS)

     The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are
from 47 observations 2015 Aug. 12 to Dec. 5.  Perturbations by Mercury
to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken
into account.  The mean residual is +/- 0.31 arc second.


     Epoch =  2015 Oct. 25.0 TT
     T     =  2015 Oct. 10.67444  +/- 0.00245 (m.e.) TT 
     Peri. =  219.02900           +/- 0.00102
     Node  =  161.79139           +/- 0.00013   (2000.0)   
     Inc.  =   12.16233           +/- 0.00006
        q  =    2.1035556         +/- 0.0000062 AU
        e  =    0.4204097         +/- 0.0000033
        a  =    3.6293836         +/- 0.0000063 AU
        n' =    0.14254591        +/- 0.00000037
        P  =    6.914             +/- 0.0000181 years


     The predicted orbit for the 2022 return is as follows:

T     = 2022 Sept. 6.68441 TT       Epoch =  2022 Sept.18.0 TT
Peri. = 218.73780                       e =    0.4192425
Node  = 161.75790    (2000.0)           a =    3.6367526 AU
Inc.  =  12.15198                       n'=    0.14211288
    q =   2.1120715 AU                  P =    6.935 years


     The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above
orbital elements:

Date  Code  Residual(")   Date  Code  Residual(")   Date  Code  Residual(") 
2015/                     151015 703  1.1-  0.1+    151203 H01  0.0   0.0   
150812 F51  0.1-  0.0     151201 F51  0.1-  0.2-    151203 H01  0.1+  0.1-  
150812 F51  0.2-  0.1+    151201 F51  0.0   0.2-    151203 H01  0.0   0.0   
150812 F51  0.0   0.1-    151201 F51  0.0   0.2-    151204 691  0.2-  0.6+  
150812 F51  0.3+  0.0     151201 F51  0.1+  0.2-    151204 691  0.2-  0.7+  
150923 F51  0.0   0.0     151202 H01  0.1+  0.1+    151204 691  0.1-  0.7+  
150923 F51  0.0   0.1-    151202 H01  0.1+  0.1+    151204 H01  0.3+  0.1-  
150923 F51  0.1+  0.1-    151202 H01  0.2+  0.0     151204 H01  0.5+  0.1+  
150923 F51  0.0   0.0     151202 H01  0.1+  0.0     151204 H01  0.2+  0.0   
151009 703  0.4+  1.0+    151202 H06  0.3+  0.1+    151204 H01  0.3+  0.2-  
151009 703  0.1-  0.3-    151202 H06  0.1+  0.5+    151204 C10  0.2+  0.9+  
151009 703  0.7-  0.2+    151202 H06  0.0   0.1+    151204 C10  0.1-  0.7+  
151009 703  0.1-  0.5+    151202 K51  0.3-  0.4+    151204 C10  0.3-  0.3+  
151015 703  0.5-  0.6+    151202 K51  0.2-  0.3+    151205 568  0.0   0.1+  
151015 703  0.1+  0.1+    151202 K51  0.2-  0.3+    151205 568  0.0   0.1+  
151015 703  0.5-  0.3-    151203 H01  0.0   0.1-    151205 568  0.0   0.1+  

                                          ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT
Syuichi Nakano                                       2015 Dec. 7

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