Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 3238 P/2015 M2 (PANSTARRS)

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 112 observations 2015 June 22 to 2016 Aug. 8. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.52 arc second. Recent 2016 August observations show the residuals of +26" for Right Ascension and +10" for Declination from an orbit in NK 3030 (= HICQ 2016). Epoch = 2015 Sept.15.0 TT T = 2015 Aug. 31.57865 +/- 0.11419 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 224.81573 +/- 0.00860 Node = 86.61615 +/- 0.00057 (2000.0) Inc. = 3.97408 +/- 0.00004 q = 5.9127859 +/- 0.0000323 AU e = 0.1789598 +/- 0.0000070 a = 7.2015790 +/- 0.0000101 AU n' = 0.05099910 +/- 0.00000011 P = 19.326 +/- 0.0000406 years The predicted orbit for the 2035 return is as follows: T = 2035 Jan. 10.05948 TT Epoch = 2034 Dec. 24.0 TT Peri. = 223.58415 e = 0.1843996 Node = 86.21446 (2000.0) a = 7.2930217 AU Inc. = 3.96659 n'= 0.05004294 q = 5.9481911 AU P = 19.695 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2015/ 150711 291 0.3- 0.1- 150721 G45 0.9- 0.1- 150622 G45 0.1+ 0.0 150711 474 0.4- 0.2- 150721 G45 0.9- 0.2- 150622 G45 1.0- 0.5- 150711 474 0.3- 0.1- 150721 G45 0.7- 0.1- 150622 G45 0.8- 0.4- 150711 474 0.3- 0.0 150725 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 150622 G45 1.1- 0.9- 150711 474 0.4- 0.0 150725 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 150628 F51 0.4+ 0.0 150712 204 0.3+ 0.9- 150725 F51 0.1+ 0.0 150628 F51 0.1+ 0.0 150712 204 0.2- 0.4- 150725 F51 0.1- 0.1- 150628 F51 0.4+ 0.2+ 150712 291 0.2- 0.0 150810 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 150629 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 150712 291 1.7- 0.4- 150810 F51 0.0 0.5+ 150629 F51 0.5+ 0.1+ 150712 291 1.3- 0.3- 150810 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 150630 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 150712 G32 0.0 0.1- 150811 F51 0.1- 0.1- 150630 F51 0.0 0.0 150712 G32 1.0- 0.3- 150811 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 150630 F51 0.3+ 0.2+ 150712 G32 0.9- 0.7- 150811 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 150630 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 150712 G32 0.3- 0.2+ 150812 215 1.5- 0.6+ 150707 Q62 0.1- 0.0 150712 E23 0.4- 0.5- 150812 215 1.6- 0.5+ 150707 Q62 0.1- 0.1+ 150712 E23 0.2- 1.0- 150812 215 0.7- 0.1- 150707 Q62 0.3- 0.1- 150712 E23 0.7- 0.8- 150815 E07 0.4- 0.3- 150708 291 1.2- 0.0 150712 104 1.2- 0.5- 150815 E07 0.2- 0.5- 150708 291 1.4- 0.6- 150712 104 0.8- 0.0 150822 474 0.4- 0.2- 150709 958 1.0- 0.8- 150714 I93 0.4- 0.4- 150822 474 0.1+ 0.0 150709 958 0.1+ 0.4+ 150714 I93 0.4- 0.4- 150822 474 0.1+ 0.1- 150709 W96 1.6- 0.3- 150714 G40 0.4- 0.7- 150825 474 0.2- 0.5- 150709 W96 1.2- 0.8- 150714 G40 1.0- 0.6- 150825 474 0.3- 0.2- 150709 291 0.4- 0.6- 150714 G40 0.1- 0.2- 150825 474 0.3- 0.2- 150709 291 0.4- 0.0 150714 G40 0.1- 0.4- 150825 474 0.3- 0.3- 150709 291 0.4- 0.2+ 150714 F51 0.4- 0.0 150906 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 150709 958 1.1- 0.1+ 150714 F51 0.1+ 0.0 150906 F51 0.0 0.1- 150710 958 1.4- 0.4- 150714 F51 0.0 0.0 150906 F51 0.2+ 0.0 150710 958 1.3- 0.7- 150719 F51 0.2+ 0.2+ 150906 F51 0.0 0.1- 150710 958 0.5- 0.6- 150719 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 151024 F51 0.2- 0.1+ 150710 958 1.1- 0.0 150719 F52 0.2+ 0.0 151024 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 150710 958 0.5- 0.3- 150719 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 151024 F51 0.1- 0.2- 150710 958 0.6- 0.7- 150719 F52 0.0 0.1+ 151024 F51 0.1+ 0.0 150710 958 0.8- 0.9- 150719 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 2016/ 150710 W96 0.7- 0.1- 150719 F52 0.2+ 0.1+ 160803 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 150710 W96 0.2- 0.0 150719 F52 0.0 0.0 160803 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 150711 291 1.9- 0.7- 150721 G45 0.3- 0.2- 160808 Q62 0.3- 0.1- 150711 291 0.3- 0.2- 150721 G45 0.1- 0.2- 160808 Q62 0.6- 0.1- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2016 Oct. 12

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