Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 3861 264P/Larsen
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 105 observations 2004 to 2019. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.64 arc second. Residuals of re-observations in 2019 were +12" for Right Ascension and -6" for Declination from the prediction in NK 2281 (= HICQ 2018/2019) with the delta-T correction = -0.017 day. The comet will pass 0.48 AU from Jupiter on 2023 Nov. 6 UT. See the previous orbits in NK 1175 and NK 2281. Epoch = 2019 July 16.0 TT T = 2019 Aug. 4.91284 +/- 0.00298 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 346.62089 +/- 0.00072 Node = 220.90293 +/- 0.00003 (2000.0) Inc. = 25.15143 +/- 0.00003 q = 2.4384257 +/- 0.0000032 AU e = 0.3737690 +/- 0.0000008 a = 3.8938117 +/- 0.0000071 AU n' = 0.12827489 +/- 0.00000035 P = 7.684 +/- 0.0000211 years T = 2004 Mar. 13.09583 TT Epoch = 2004 Mar. 16.0 TT Peri. = 346.54010 e = 0.3739589 Node = 220.97352 (2000.0) a = 3.8928046 AU Inc. = 25.14777 n'= 0.12832467 q = 2.4370558 AU P = 7.681 years T = 2011 Nov. 21.88234 TT Epoch = 2011 Nov. 15.0 TT Peri. = 346.53494 e = 0.3723833 Node = 220.94663 (2000.0) a = 3.9037722 AU Inc. = 25.12123 n'= 0.12778426 q = 2.4500726 AU P = 7.713 years The predicted orbit for the 2027 return is as follows: T = 2027 Mar. 23.29118 TT Epoch = 2027 Mar. 16.0 TT Peri. = 341.56727 e = 0.3364482 Node = 218.88914 (2000.0) a = 4.0346703 AU Inc. = 25.54433 n'= 0.12161636 q = 2.6772129 AU P = 8.104 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2004/ 040425 704 0.8- 0.7+ 040521 704 0.2+ 0.2- 040422 691 0.4- 0.4+ 040425 704 0.0 1.3+ 040521 704 0.7+ 0.9+ 040422 691 0.4- 0.4+ 040425 372 (2.2+ 2.6-) 040521 704 0.3- 0.2+ 040422 691 0.3- 0.4+ 040426 204 0.2- 0.4+ 040521 704 0.4+ 0.7+ 040422 428 1.4- 0.1- 040426 204 0.8- 0.0 040521 704 0.6+ 0.6+ 040422 428 0.6- 0.5- 040426 204 0.4- 0.5- 040524 360 0.7+ 0.8- 040422 428 (2.4- 0.1-) 040426 699 1.5- 0.2+ 040524 360 0.6+ 0.7- 040422 113 0.8+ 0.1- 040426 699 0.3- 0.7+ 040524 360 0.9+ 1.2- 040422 113 0.4+ 0.2+ 040426 699 0.3+ 0.5+ 040605 170 0.1+ 1.5- 040422 113 0.4+ 0.6+ 040426 699 0.1- 0.1- 040605 170 0.1+ 1.3- 040423 704 0.4- 1.1+ 040427 D74 (2.9+ 4.9-) 040605 170 0.8+ 1.8- 040423 704 0.3- 1.5+ 040427 D74 (0.6- 2.0-) 040613 360 0.9+ 0.9- 040423 704 0.5- 1.1+ 040427 D74 (3.3- 2.7+) 040613 360 0.1+ 0.1- 040423 704 0.2- 1.2- 040428 360 0.3+ 0.3- 040613 360 0.7+ 0.4- 040423 704 (0.6+ 2.1+) 040428 360 1.0- 0.9+ 2012/ 040423 704 0.4+ 0.0 040428 360 0.5- 0.2+ 120615 461 0.4+ 0.2- 040423 704 (0.5+ 2.6+) 040510 608 0.7+ 0.8+ 120615 461 0.1+ 0.2+ 040423 704 0.4- 0.6+ 040510 608 0.1+ 1.4+ 120615 461 0.7- 0.0 040423 474 0.6+ 0.2+ 040510 608 1.0+ 1.4+ 120616 461 0.2+ 0.7- 040423 474 0.1- 0.3+ 040512 699 0.2- 0.4- 120616 461 0.8+ 0.2+ 040423 474 0.3- 0.0 040512 699 0.3+ 0.7+ 120616 461 0.7+ 0.5- 040423 428 0.9- 0.6- 040512 699 0.0 0.5- 120616 461 0.5+ 0.4- 040423 428 1.1- 0.2+ 040512 699 0.5+ 0.2- 120618 H06 0.2+ 0.3- 040423 428 0.7- 1.4+ 040514 360 0.7+ 0.5- 120618 H06 0.1- 0.8- 040423 428 0.2- 0.2+ 040514 360 0.0 0.5- 120618 H06 0.7- 1.8- 040423 J87 1.1+ 0.4+ 040514 360 0.4+ 0.4- 120718 188 0.8+ 0.7- 040423 J87 0.8- 0.5- 040515 J87 0.7- 0.2- 120718 188 0.2- 0.0 040423 J87 0.9- 0.6+ 040515 J87 1.0+ 0.5- 120718 188 0.5+ 0.1- 040423 J87 1.3- 0.6- 040515 J87 0.1- 0.3- 2019/ 040424 651 0.5- 0.0 040515 704 0.8+ 0.0 190502 F51 0.0 0.3- 040424 651 0.3+ 0.5+ 040515 704 1.0+ 0.0 190502 F51 0.0 0.3- 040424 651 0.2- 0.3+ 040515 704 (2.7+ 1.2-) 190502 F51 0.1- 0.2- 040424 474 0.4- 0.5+ 040515 704 1.8+ 0.4- 190502 F51 0.0 0.2- 040424 474 1.1- 0.2- 040515 704 (0.1+ 2.3+) 190529 J22 (2.8- 1.5-) 040424 474 0.1- 0.5- 040516 104 0.4- 1.7+ 190529 J22 (4.5- 2.0-) 040424 474 0.5- 0.2+ 040516 104 0.4- 0.4- 190529 J22 (3.7- 3.4-) 040424 474 0.4+ 0.8- 040516 104 0.9+ 1.4+ 190624 Q62 0.8- 0.8+ 040425 859 0.5- 0.1- 040517 704 0.3+ 0.2- 190624 Q62 0.6- 0.3+ 040425 859 0.2+ 0.1- 040517 704 0.8+ 0.5+ 190624 Q62 0.7- 0.2+ 040425 859 (2.3- 0.6+) 040517 704 0.2- 0.6+ 040425 704 0.1- 0.8+ 040517 215 0.6- 0.7- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2019 Aug. 5