Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4498 P/Kowalski (2005 W3 = 2021 O2)

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 127 observations 2005 to 2021. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.61 arc second. Residuals from the recovery observations on 2021 July 20 are +12'.6 for Right Ascension and -0'.3 for Declination drom the prediction in NK 1348 (= HICQ 2020/2021) with the delta-T correction = -0.97 day. The residuals on 2020 observations were around +9.'2 for R. A. and +2'.5 for Decl., of course with the same delta-T correction. The comet has passed 1.13 AU from Saturn on 2014 July 27 UT. See the previous orbits in YC 2495, YC 2496, YC 2497 and NK 1348. This is same orbit in CBET 5006. Epoch = 2021 Sept.23.0 TT T = 2021 Sept.20.39823 +/- 0.00098 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 200.72890 +/- 0.00023 Node = 210.08838 +/- 0.00005 (2000.0) Inc. = 16.42138 +/- 0.00001 q = 2.8900856 +/- 0.0000047 AU e = 0.5433432 +/- 0.0000008 a = 6.3287911 +/- 0.0000149 AU n' = 0.06190460 +/- 0.00000022 P = 15.921 +/- 0.0000563 years T = 2005 Aug. 23.04816 TT Epoch = 2005 Aug. 18.0 TT Peri. = 199.23472 e = 0.5304873 Node = 211.56586 (2000.0) a = 6.4075624 AU Inc. = 16.77815 n'= 0.06076658 q = 3.0084320 AU P = 16.220 years The predicted orbit for the 2037 return is as follows: T = 2037 Sept.11.47561 TT Epoch = 2037 Sept.19.0 TT Peri. = 200.88085 e = 0.5440238 Node = 210.12235 (2000.0) a = 6.3496106 AU Inc. = 16.39010 n'= 0.06160039 q = 2.8952715 AU P = 16.000 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2005/ 051130 D83 0.6+ 0.2- 051225 349 0.4+ 0.0 050930 703 (3.7- 1.3+) 051130 D83 0.4+ 0.3+ 051225 349 0.4+ 0.1+ 050930 703 1.1- 0.1- 051130 147 0.5+ 0.8- 051225 349 0.5+ 0.0 050930 703 (2.0- 0.0 ) 051130 147 0.7+ 0.4- 051229 644 0.4+ 0.3+ 050930 703 (3.0- 0.8+) 051130 213 0.2+ 0.1+ 051229 644 0.2- 0.1+ 051124 644 0.4+ 0.1- 051130 213 0.3+ 0.0 051229 644 0.3+ 0.1- 051124 644 0.7+ 0.0 051130 213 0.3+ 0.1+ 051229 415 0.4+ 0.2- 051124 644 0.3+ 0.3- 051201 204 0.2+ 0.2+ 051229 415 1.1+ 0.6+ 051125 703 (2.0- 0.2+) 051201 204 0.4- 0.4+ 2006/ 051125 703 0.5- 0.8+ 051201 204 0.3- 0.1+ 060101 213 0.2- 1.0+ 051125 703 0.4+ 0.4+ 051201 204 0.5- 0.1+ 060101 213 0.2- 1.0+ 051125 703 (2.4- 0.7+) 051204 213 0.4+ 0.5- 060101 213 0.9+ 0.4+ 051125 703 (2.6- 1.4+) 051204 213 0.4+ 0.6- 060105 699 1.5- 0.1+ 051125 703 (2.2- 0.7+) 051204 213 0.3+ 0.6- 060105 699 0.1- 0.3- 051125 703 1.1- 1.4+ 051204 170 1.3- 0.4+ 060105 699 (0.0 2.3+) 051125 703 (2.3- 0.0 ) 051204 170 0.7- 0.7+ 060105 699 0.4+ 0.4+ 051125 703 1.6- 0.4+ 051204 170 0.5- 0.8+ 060107 204 1.0+ 0.3+ 051125 703 (2.3- 1.3+) 051204 170 0.5- 0.8+ 060107 204 0.4- 0.3+ 051125 703 (2.1- 1.5+) 051204 372 0.0 0.1- 060107 673 1.2+ 0.3+ 051125 G96 0.7- 0.3- 051206 704 1.3+ 0.3+ 060107 673 0.5+ 0.1- 051125 703 (2.9- 1.2+) 051206 704 0.4+ 0.2+ 060107 673 1.1+ 0.1- 051125 G96 0.1- 0.3- 051206 704 0.7+ 1.0+ 060107 673 1.1+ 0.0 051125 G96 0.0 0.6- 051206 372 0.1+ 1.8+ 060119 215 0.4- 1.3+ 051125 G96 0.6+ 0.5- 051206 372 1.0+ 1.7+ 060324 G96 0.3+ 0.3+ 051126 734 0.5- 0.4- 051208 349 0.8- 1.1+ 060324 G96 0.5+ 0.1- 051126 734 0.7- 0.0 051208 349 0.4- 0.8+ 060324 G96 0.0 0.2+ 051126 734 0.6+ 0.3- 051208 372 1.2+ 1.4+ 060324 G96 1.1+ 0.2+ 051126 711 (1.8+ 3.2+) 051208 A79 (0.6+ 2.3+) 2020/ 051126 854 0.8- 1.6- 051209 A79 0.9+ 1.7+ 200819 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 051127 J95 0.4+ 0.5+ 051209 A79 1.2- 1.2- 200819 F51 0.0 0.1+ 051127 J95 0.2+ 0.0 051209 A79 0.5- 0.9- 200819 F51 0.0 0.2+ 051127 J95 0.1+ 0.3+ 051209 147 0.4+ 0.3- 200819 F51 0.2+ 0.0 051127 372 0.8+ 0.1- 051209 147 0.5+ 0.1+ 200906 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 051127 213 0.0 0.3- 051210 232 0.2- 0.7- 200906 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 051127 213 0.1- 0.2- 051210 232 0.2- 0.4- 200914 F52 0.6- 0.5+ 051127 213 0.1- 0.1- 051210 213 0.1- 0.2- 200914 F52 0.2- 0.0 051127 213 0.1- 0.1+ 051210 213 0.1+ 0.2- 200914 F52 0.4+ 0.3- 051129 372 0.7- 0.4+ 051210 213 0.2+ 0.1- 201006 F52 0.4- 0.6- 051129 349 0.2- 1.3- 051210 232 0.3+ 0.2+ 201006 F52 0.1- 0.1- 051129 349 0.5- 0.7- 051215 213 0.1- 0.4- 201108 F52 0.2+ 0.2+ 051129 349 0.5- 0.6- 051215 213 0.1+ 0.6- 201108 F52 0.1+ 0.2+ 051129 213 0.3- 0.1+ 051215 213 0.0 0.6- 201206 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 051129 213 0.3- 0.0 051219 213 0.7+ 0.7- 201206 F51 0.2- 0.0 051129 213 0.5- 0.4- 051219 213 0.5+ 0.6- 2021/ 051130 D88 1.3- 0.7+ 051219 213 0.5+ 0.4- 210720 F51 0.1- 0.2- 051130 D88 1.5- 0.7+ 051224 703 0.4- 0.4+ 210720 F51 0.1+ 0.3- 051130 D88 1.4- 0.3+ 051224 703 (1.9- 2.0-) 210720 F51 0.1- 0.2- 051130 D83 0.9- 0.4- 051224 703 1.3- 1.8- 210720 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 051130 D83 0.9+ 0.9- 051224 703 1.1- 0.2- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2021 July 21

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