Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4515 P/Gibbs (2014 W12 = 8W2AB5A in 2008 = 2021 Qx)
This is a revised orbit for former NK 4515. Author forgot 14 observations on MPEC 2021-P47 because the previous orbit was computed in home (not office), home files were not updated yet. Hidetaka Sato pointed out this to me. Thanks! Also Sato has sent me the pre-recovery observations on 2021 Aug. 7 found on his survey images. The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 92 observations 2008 to 2021. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.61 arc second. Residuals on the recovery observations were +15.8 deg for Right Ascension and +3.2 deg for Declination from the prediction, which was computed from a non-perturbed orbit (= HICQ 2015) since the span was only 38 days, in NK 2976 (= HICQ 2020/2021) with the delta-T correction = -37.6 days. 2008 observations were found by Author. The residuals were +68" for R. A. and +13" for Decl. from a linked orbit 2014-2021 with the delta-T correction = +0.05 day. Thus the comet has made three appearances. Epoch = 2021 May 26.0 TT T = 2021 May 14.67750 +/- 0.00017 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 36.81588 +/- 0.00015 Node = 299.33703 +/- 0.00014 (2000.0) Inc. = 8.51529 +/- 0.00002 q = 1.6740075 +/- 0.0000005 AU e = 0.5196985 +/- 0.0000001 a = 3.4853262 +/- 0.0000014 AU n' = 0.15147429 +/- 0.00000009 P = 6.507 +/- 0.0000039 years T = 2008 May 16.69187 TT Epoch = 2008 May 14.0 TT Peri. = 36.84230 e = 0.5212093 Node = 299.41912 (2000.0) a = 3.4770544 AU Inc. = 8.53290 n'= 0.15201514 q = 1.6647813 AU P = 6.484 years T = 2014 Nov. 15.10839 TT Epoch = 2014 Oct. 30.0 TT Peri. = 36.96959 e = 0.5195035 Node = 299.32391 (2000.0) a = 3.4851825 AU Inc. = 8.51573 n'= 0.15148366 q = 1.6746180 AU P = 6.506 years The predicted orbit for the 2027 return is as follows: T = 2027 Nov. 17.81262 TT Epoch = 2027 Nov. 11.0 TT Peri. = 36.82372 e = 0.5182441 Node = 299.30545 (2000.0) a = 3.4917831 AU Inc. = 8.50197 n'= 0.15105433 q = 1.6821872 AU P = 6.525 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2008/ 141201 807 0.4- 0.1+ 141204 G40 0.1+ 0.2- 081130 703 1.0+ 0.9- 141201 807 0.5- 0.0 141205 I47 0.1- 0.5- 081130 703 1.2- 0.3- 141201 W96 0.8+ 0.4- 141205 I47 0.1- 0.7- 081130 703 0.7+ 0.8- 141201 807 0.6- 0.1+ 141205 I47 1.2- 1.4- 081130 703 0.7- 0.7+ 141201 W96 0.5- 0.1- 141206 958 0.4+ 1.4- 2014/ 141201 807 0.5- 0.0 141206 958 0.8+ 1.2- 140621 F51 0.1- 0.4+ 141201 W96 0.5- 0.1- 141206 958 0.5+ 1.9- 140621 F51 0.2- 0.1+ 141201 W96 0.5- 0.1- 141212 Q62 0.7+ 0.7+ 140621 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 141201 H06 0.2- 0.4+ 141212 Q62 0.5+ 0.8+ 140621 F51 0.2- 0.0 141201 G96 0.2+ 0.1+ 141212 Q62 0.6+ 0.9+ 140624 W84 0.2+ 0.1- 141201 H06 0.1- 0.3+ 141214 349 (2.3+ 1.0-) 140624 W84 0.1+ 0.1- 141201 G96 0.4+ 0.1+ 141214 349 (2.9+ 2.0-) 140624 W84 0.4+ 0.1- 141201 G96 0.0 0.1+ 141223 215 1.6+ 0.1- 140627 F51 0.1- 0.1- 141201 G96 0.1- 0.3+ 141223 215 1.2+ 0.2- 140627 F51 0.0 0.0 141201 H06 0.2+ 0.1+ 141223 215 0.9+ 0.6- 140627 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 141201 G96 0.1+ 0.3+ 141225 H06 1.7+ 1.0+ 140627 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 141201 G96 0.1- 0.1+ 141225 H06 1.0+ 0.9+ 140703 F51 0.0 0.1+ 141201 G96 0.4+ 0.1+ 141225 H06 (2.0+ 0.2+) 140703 F51 0.1+ 0.5- 141201 G96 0.2+ 0.4+ 2015/ 140703 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 141201 H06 0.1+ 0.3- 150104 349 0.2+ 0.5- 141130 G96 1.3- 0.0 141201 H06 0.6- 1.4- 150104 349 1.2+ 1.0+ 141130 G96 0.3- 0.3+ 141201 H06 0.5+ 0.6- 150107 H06 0.5+ 1.5- 141130 G96 1.0- 0.2+ 141201 H06 0.1- 0.9- 150107 H06 0.3+ 0.9- 141130 G96 1.7- 0.4+ 141201 H06 0.6+ 1.0- 150107 H06 0.4+ 0.5- 141130 G96 0.5- 0.2- 141201 H21 0.7+ 1.2+ 2021/ 141130 G96 0.3- 0.5- 141201 H21 0.6+ 1.1+ 210807 H06 0.8- 1.2+ 141130 G96 0.1- 0.0 141202 H21 0.3+ 1.0+ 210807 H06 0.8- 1.2+ 141130 G96 0.5- 0.1- 141204 807 0.1+ 0.4+ 210816 Z84 0.4- 0.5+ 141201 W96 0.3- 0.1- 141204 807 0.2- 0.3+ 210816 Z84 0.3+ 0.6+ 141201 W96 0.6- 0.4+ 141204 807 0.1+ 0.2+ 210816 Z84 0.1- 0.1+ 141201 W96 0.3- 0.3+ 141204 807 0.1- 0.1+ 210817 Z84 0.2+ 0.5+ 141201 807 0.5- 0.2+ 141204 807 0.2- 0.1- 210817 Z84 0.2- 0.2+ 141201 W96 1.1- 0.0 141204 G40 0.2- 0.0 210817 Z84 0.4+ 0.5+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2021 Aug. 17