Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4524 97P/Metcalf-Brewington

The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 230 observations 1991 to 2021, including planetary perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and non-gravitational effect of style II. The mean residual is +/- 0.79 arc second. Residuals in 2021 Sept. re-observations were -28" for Right Ascension and -3" for Declination from the prediction in NK 3940 (= HICQ 2020/2021) with the delta-T correction = +0.022 day. The comet has passed 0.11 AU from Jupiter on 1993 Mar. 28 UT. See the previous orbits in NK 398 (1983 prediction), NK 551, NK 674 (= MPC 31663), MPC 41159, NK 1608, NK 2168 and NK 3940. Epoch = 2022 Mar. 2.0 TT T = 2022 Feb. 15.53405 +/- 0.00156 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 229.96632 +/- 0.00035 Node = 184.07829 +/- 0.00005 (2000.0) Inc. = 17.95206 +/- 0.00002 q = 2.5701585 +/- 0.0000007 AU e = 0.4599174 +/- 0.0000002 a = 4.7588246 +/- 0.0000019 AU n' = 0.09494116 +/- 0.00000006 P = 10.381 +/- 0.0000062 years A1 = +1.224 +/- 0.363 A2 = -1.43331 +/- 0.00330 T = 1991 Jan. 5.63146 TT Epoch = 1991 Jan. 24.0 TT Peri. = 208.05165 e = 0.5938814 Node = 187.78809 (2000.0) a = 3.9187691 AU Inc. = 13.02820 n'= 0.12705143 q = 1.5914849 AU P = 7.758 years T = 2001 Apr. 15.00635 TT Epoch = 2001 Apr. 1.0 TT Peri. = 229.71547 e = 0.4564269 Node = 186.43842 (2000.0) a = 4.8033247 AU Inc. = 17.98510 n'= 0.09362486 q = 2.6109579 AU P = 10.527 years T = 2011 Aug. 20.95174 TT Epoch = 2011 Aug. 27.0 TT Peri. = 228.21071 e = 0.4593215 Node = 185.20773 (2000.0) a = 4.8026318 AU Inc. = 17.88613 n'= 0.09364512 q = 2.5966796 AU P = 10.525 years The predicted orbit for the 2032 return is as follows: T = 2032 July 19.47780 TT Epoch = 2032 July 27.0 TT Peri. = 230.18160 e = 0.4593498 Node = 184.01791 (2000.0) a = 4.7814587 AU Inc. = 17.92169 n'= 0.09426782 q = 2.5850967 AU P = 10.455 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 1991/ 000902 699 0.6- 0.1- 111104 I40 0.3+ 0.2+ 910105 412 (5.4+ 3.5-) 000903 704 0.9- 2.1+ 111104 I40 0.0 0.3- 910105 412 (0.8- 3.2-) 000903 704 0.1+ 1.0+ 111104 C32 1.1- 1.2- 910107 897 (5.1+ 0.2+) 000905 704 0.5+ 1.5+ 111104 C32 0.0 0.1+ 910107 897 (4.2+ 1.1+) 000905 704 0.2+ 1.9+ 111118 C32 0.7- 0.6- 910108 413 0.3+ 0.9+ 000905 704 0.5+ 1.7+ 111118 C32 0.3+ 0.0 910108 026 0.3+ 1.1+ 000905 704 0.2- 1.9+ 111118 C32 0.4- 0.1- 910109 411 0.9- 0.7+ 000909 540 0.4- 0.1+ 111118 C32 0.7- 0.4- 910109 411 0.0 0.3+ 000909 540 1.4- 0.9+ 111120 C10 0.2- 0.5- 910109 413 0.8+ 1.2+ 000909 540 0.4- 0.9+ 111120 C10 0.3- 0.5- 910109 413 0.6- 0.1- 000924 704 0.2- 0.3+ 111128 213 0.2- 1.4- 910109 372 0.4- 0.3+ 000924 691 1.3- 0.3- 111128 213 1.1- 0.1+ 910109 372 0.4- 1.4+ 000924 704 0.7- 0.3+ 111128 213 1.7- 0.4+ 910109 323 0.8+ 0.4- 000924 704 1.6- 0.1+ 111129 C10 0.3+ 0.5- 910109 026 1.1- 1.3- 000924 691 0.8- 0.2- 111129 C10 0.5+ 0.2- 910110 897 0.1+ 0.4- 000924 704 0.6- 0.7- 111201 I40 1.0- 0.0 910110 897 2.0+ 0.4- 000924 691 0.4- 1.4+ 111201 I40 0.0 0.5+ 910110 401 0.1- 0.3- 000926 704 0.2+ 0.1- 111201 I40 0.6+ 0.5+ 910110 401 0.7- 0.7- 000926 704 0.3+ 0.5+ 111203 J47 1.0- 0.2+ 910110 323 0.1+ 0.0 000926 704 0.2- 0.0 111203 J47 0.9- 0.3+ 910110 503 0.4+ 0.8+ 000926 704 0.1+ 0.1- 111203 J47 0.5- 0.6+ 910111 415 0.3- 0.9+ 000926 704 0.1- 0.4- 111217 J01 0.0 0.8+ 910111 415 0.5- 1.2+ 000926 360 0.1- 0.4+ 111217 J01 0.2+ 0.9+ 910111 323 1.1+ 0.9- 000926 360 0.6- 0.9+ 111217 J01 0.4+ 0.1+ 910112 372 0.3- 2.2+ 000926 360 0.4- 0.2+ 111217 J01 0.2+ 0.6+ 910112 474 2.5- 1.7+ 001001 704 0.2+ 1.1+ 111217 J01 0.1+ 0.8+ 910112 474 1.5- 2.3+ 001001 704 0.1- 0.5+ 111225 349 1.0- 1.0+ 910113 372 0.4- 0.6+ 001001 704 1.2- 0.0 111225 349 0.0 0.4- 910113 984 0.2+ 0.3+ 001002 704 0.2- 1.0+ 111226 215 0.2+ 0.9- 910113 801 0.6+ 0.1+ 001002 704 0.4+ 0.8+ 111226 215 0.1+ 0.3- 910113 801 0.4+ 0.3+ 001002 704 0.4+ 1.3+ 111226 215 0.1- 0.4+ 910113 801 0.4+ 0.2+ 001002 704 0.8- 1.2+ 111226 C10 0.3- 0.5+ 910114 503 0.1+ 0.0 001002 704 0.1+ 1.3+ 111226 C10 0.3- 0.4- 910115 897 0.7+ 0.2- 001005 402 0.8+ 1.1+ 111226 C10 0.5- 0.1+ 910115 372 0.3+ 0.1- 001005 402 0.3- 0.1+ 111227 213 (0.7+ 2.8-) 910115 364 0.3- 0.8- 001005 402 0.1+ 0.2- 111228 213 0.4+ 1.2+ 910115 364 0.5- 0.0 001029 704 0.6+ 2.2+ 111228 213 0.8+ 0.1- 910115 875 1.0- 0.4+ 001029 704 0.1+ 0.1- 111229 C32 1.6- 1.9+ 910115 875 2.2- 0.0 001029 704 0.9- 0.8- 111229 C32 0.6+ 0.0 910117 474 1.3- 1.4+ 001029 704 0.1- 1.3- 111229 C32 1.3- 0.2+ 910117 474 1.8- 0.4+ 001103 360 0.4+ 0.5- 111230 D90 (1.0- 2.4+) 910117 364 0.2- 2.3- 001103 360 0.6+ 0.5+ 111230 D90 0.6+ 1.0+ 910117 364 0.4+ 0.9- 001118 699 0.3- 0.5+ 2012/ 910117 984 1.6- 0.7- 001118 699 1.6+ 0.5+ 120114 511 (3.1+ 1.7-) 910117 801 0.5+ 1.0- 001118 699 0.8+ 1.1- 120114 511 0.0 0.7+ 910118 026 1.5+ 0.4- 001118 699 0.8- 0.1- 120116 E07 0.9+ 0.0 910119 897 0.8- 0.8- 001119 699 1.0+ 0.9+ 120116 E07 0.2+ 0.5+ 910119 897 0.2- 1.2+ 001119 699 1.1+ 0.4- 120117 104 1.3- 0.6- 910119 897 2.5+ 0.1- 001119 699 0.5+ 1.4+ 120117 104 1.1- 0.2+ 910120 657 0.1+ 0.3+ 001119 699 0.9+ 0.1- 120123 E07 1.5- 0.3+ 910122 364 0.1- 1.4+ 001122 360 0.3+ 0.1+ 120123 E07 0.6- 0.1+ 910122 364 1.4+ 0.0 001122 360 0.2- 0.6+ 120123 E07 0.9- 1.4+ 910125 046 1.2- 1.0- 001129 322 (3.2+ 1.6-) 120128 E07 0.3+ 0.1+ 910125 046 2.6- 0.6+ 001129 322 (4.7+ 0.8-) 120128 E07 0.7- 0.3+ 910201 046 1.3+ 0.9- 001129 322 (0.1- 2.4-) 121208 C23 (8.1+ 9.2-) 910201 046 1.6+ 0.2+ 001215 402 1.5+ 0.9- 121208 C23 (7.7+ 8.9-) 910202 056 (4.4+ 0.2-) 001215 402 2.1+ 0.2- 121231 900 (6.4+ 7.2-) 910202 046 1.7- 1.0- 001215 402 (2.3+ 1.2+) 121231 900 (9.5+ 4.7-) 910202 046 1.3- 0.1+ 001222 360 0.4+ 0.1+ 2021/ 910202 056 (5.8+ 1.8-) 001222 360 0.5+ 0.1- 210807 A77 0.2+ 1.5- 910203 056 (4.1+ 0.9-) 001223 704 0.1+ 0.6+ 210807 A77 0.2- 1.5- 910203 056 (5.5+ 0.6-) 001223 704 0.8+ 0.6+ 210807 A77 0.1+ 0.1- 910204 323 0.8+ 0.8- 001223 704 0.3- 0.8- 210901 I81 0.4+ 0.2- 910204 026 1.6- 1.3- 2011/ 210901 I81 0.5+ 0.5- 910205 323 (2.9+ 1.0-) 110831 C10 (3.3+ 0.1-) 210901 I81 (2.4+ 1.2-) 910206 323 1.4+ 0.6- 110831 C10 1.7+ 1.0- 210905 215 0.0 0.9- 910207 323 2.1+ 0.2- 110903 C10 0.8+ 0.5- 210905 215 0.1- 1.0- 910208 323 1.4+ 0.9+ 110903 C10 0.1+ 1.3- 210905 215 0.2+ 0.4- 910209 801 0.6+ 0.8+ 110903 C10 0.4+ 0.7- 210910 G96 0.0 0.3- 910211 801 1.4+ 0.6+ 110905 C10 1.0+ 1.7- 210910 G96 0.0 0.4- 910216 801 0.8+ 0.7- 110905 C10 1.8+ 0.9- 210910 G96 0.2+ 0.4- 910217 046 0.2+ 1.1- 111003 C32 0.4+ 0.3- 210910 G96 0.1- 0.5- 910217 046 0.6- 0.2+ 111004 C32 0.4+ 0.3- 210910 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 910218 046 0.0 1.2- 111004 C32 1.0+ 0.8- 210910 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 910218 046 1.7+ 0.0 111009 C32 0.8+ 1.0- 210910 F51 0.0 0.1- 910302 984 (1.3+ 3.8-) 111009 C32 1.9+ 0.4- 210910 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 910303 897 2.2+ 0.2- 111022 C32 1.7+ 1.1- 210911 W62 0.1+ 1.3+ 910303 897 (1.7+ 5.8+) 111022 C32 1.0+ 0.3+ 210911 W62 0.2+ 0.3+ 910403 372 (3.3- 0.8-) 111022 C32 0.4+ 1.0+ 210911 W62 0.0 0.4+ 910403 372 0.4- 1.5- 111022 C32 0.2+ 0.2+ 210912 Z10 0.0 0.8+ 2000/ 111024 C10 1.1+ 0.0 210912 Z10 1.0- 0.7- 000901 704 0.1- 1.0+ 111024 C10 (2.3- 1.5+) 210913 A77 0.2- 0.7- 000901 704 0.5- 1.2+ 111030 H06 1.4+ 0.4+ 210913 A77 0.3- 0.8- 000901 704 0.1+ 0.3- 111030 H06 1.5+ 0.7- 210913 A77 0.1- 0.7- 000901 704 0.6- 0.9+ 111104 I40 0.2- 0.2+ 210914 X03 1.0- 0.8- 000902 699 (2.9- 0.1-) 111104 I40 (2.8+ 0.2-) 210914 X03 0.1- 0.2- 000902 699 1.0- 0.2- 111104 I40 0.6+ 0.0 210914 X03 0.8- 0.8- 000902 699 1.5- 0.3+ 111104 I40 0.1- 0.2- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.

Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2021 Sept. 21

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