Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4813 P/PANSTARRS (2022 M1 = 2000 OZ21)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 107 observations 2000 to 2022. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.54 arc second. Residuals of 2000 OZ21 were -3.3 deg for Right Ascension and -1.4 deg for Declination from an orbit until 2022 Aug. 25 observations with the delta-T correction = -4.6 days. The comet has passed 0.49 AU from Jupiter on 2013 Oct. 7 and 2.84 AU from Saturn on 2007 May 3 UT. An orbit of 2000 OZ21 (T= 2000 Sept. 5, q= 2.08 AU, e= 0.57, Peri.= 347, Node = 340, i = 5, a= 4.87 AU; five day arc, MPO 3953) is not so good. See an orbit in CBET 5146. Epoch = 2022 Aug. 9.0 TT T = 2022 Aug. 2.38037 +/- 0.00211 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 4.46891 +/- 0.00085 Node = 322.92153 +/- 0.00010 (2000.0) Inc. = 7.02693 +/- 0.00007 q = 2.0614042 +/- 0.0000037 AU e = 0.5783720 +/- 0.0000010 a = 4.8891541 +/- 0.0000148 AU n' = 0.09117032 +/- 0.00000041 P = 10.811 +/- 0.0000492 years T = 2000 Sept. 8.47012 TT Epoch = 2000 Sept.13.0 TT Peri. = 348.31385 e = 0.5784070 Node = 340.12424 (2000.0) a = 4.9542353 AU Inc. = 5.60581 n'= 0.08937975 q = 2.0886709 AU P = 11.027 years T = 2011 Oct. 29.46698 TT Epoch = 2011 Nov. 15.0 TT Peri. = 350.02942 e = 0.5801646 Node = 339.39820 (2000.0) a = 4.9677836 AU Inc. = 5.65049 n'= 0.08901436 q = 2.0856514 AU P = 11.072 years The predicted orbit for the 2033 return is as follows: T = 2033 Mar. 20.19339 TT Epoch = 2033 Mar. 24.0 TT Peri. = 3.42408 e = 0.5782050 Node = 322.55163 (2000.0) a = 4.8646607 AU Inc. = 7.05029 n'= 0.09185975 q = 2.0518894 AU P = 10.729 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2000/ 220705 568 0.3+ 0.1+ 220805 D29 0.4- 0.1- 000729 699 0.6- 0.0 220706 568 0.1+ 0.0 220805 D29 0.6- 0.2- 000729 699 0.8- 1.3+ 220706 568 0.6+ 0.2+ 220805 D29 0.8+ 0.5- 000729 699 0.8- 0.4- 220706 568 0.2+ 0.0 220817 T05 0.2- 0.3- 000729 699 (2.2- 2.4+) 220706 568 0.0 0.0 220817 T05 0.3+ 0.2- 000801 711 0.1+ 1.8+ 220706 568 0.0 0.0 220817 T05 0.1- 0.9- 000801 711 0.0 1.6+ 220708 L06 0.9+ 0.1- 220817 T05 0.1- 0.1- 000801 711 0.0 1.7+ 220708 L06 1.0+ 0.0 220818 D29 0.3- 0.1- 000801 474 1.3- 1.1+ 220720 F52 0.1+ 0.1+ 220818 D29 0.5- 0.1+ 000801 474 1.3- 0.9+ 220720 F52 0.0 0.3+ 220818 D29 0.4- 0.4+ 000801 474 1.4- 0.6+ 220720 F52 0.1+ 0.4+ 220819 F51 0.4+ 0.2+ 000801 557 0.2+ 0.8+ 220720 F52 0.3+ 0.1- 220819 F51 0.3+ 0.3+ 000801 557 0.4- 0.8+ 220723 D29 0.4- 0.0 220819 F51 0.4+ 0.3+ 000803 711 0.2+ 1.6+ 220723 D29 0.3- 0.0 220819 F51 0.4+ 0.3+ 000803 711 0.3+ 1.6+ 220723 D29 0.5- 0.0 220819 T08 0.3- 0.2- 000803 711 0.5- 1.5+ 220727 F52 0.2+ 0.1+ 220819 T08 0.5+ 0.3- 2022/ 220727 F52 0.2+ 0.2+ 220819 T08 1.3- 0.5+ 220531 G96 1.1- 0.5- 220727 F52 0.3+ 0.1+ 220819 T08 0.4- 0.2- 220531 G96 0.4- 0.2- 220727 F52 0.2+ 0.2+ 220820 D29 0.2- 0.0 220531 G96 0.5- 1.1- 220730 A77 0.2+ 0.6+ 220820 D29 0.2- 0.4+ 220615 W84 0.1+ 0.3+ 220730 A77 0.3- 0.6+ 220820 D29 0.4- 0.1- 220615 W84 0.5+ 0.2+ 220730 A77 0.1- 0.5+ 220821 T05 1.6- 1.3- 220615 W84 0.4+ 0.3+ 220801 X03 0.2- 0.5+ 220821 T05 0.2- 0.5- 220629 F52 0.1+ 0.1+ 220801 X03 0.0 0.2+ 220821 T05 1.1- 0.2- 220629 F52 0.1+ 0.0 220801 X03 0.0 0.1- 220821 T05 1.0- 0.3+ 220629 F52 0.3+ 0.2+ 220802 G00 0.3- 0.2- 220823 T08 0.8- 0.2- 220629 F52 0.2+ 0.0 220802 G00 0.4- 0.2- 220823 T08 0.2+ 0.4+ 220630 807 0.1- 0.0 220802 G00 0.2- 0.1- 220823 T08 0.3+ 0.3+ 220630 807 0.4- 0.0 220803 D29 1.0- 0.1- 220823 T08 1.3+ 0.3+ 220630 807 0.1+ 0.1+ 220803 D29 0.9- 1.1- 220824 W68 0.2+ 0.2- 220630 568 0.4+ 0.1+ 220803 D29 0.3- 0.2- 220824 W68 0.4+ 0.4- 220630 568 0.4+ 0.2+ 220803 D29 0.8- 0.3+ 220824 W68 0.6+ 0.3+ 220630 568 0.4+ 0.1+ 220803 D29 0.9- 0.2- 220824 W68 0.2+ 0.4- 220702 H06 0.0 0.3- 220803 D29 0.3- 0.2- 220825 D29 0.2+ 0.1- 220702 H06 0.3+ 0.1- 220804 215 0.1- 0.2- 220825 D29 0.0 0.2- 220705 568 0.3+ 0.1+ 220804 215 0.1- 0.3- 220825 D29 0.4- 0.0 220705 568 0.2+ 0.1+ 220804 215 0.3- 0.6- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2022 Sept. 3