Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4814 P/PANSTARRS-A (2016 J1 = 2004 Mx = 2022 Ex)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 98 observations 2004 to 2022. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.36 arc second. Residuals for recovery observations on 2022 Mar. 13 were +48" for Right Ascension and +6" for Declination from the prediction in NK 3987 with the delta-T correction = -0.05 day. Identical object 4L07621 in 2004 were found from a linked orbit 2016-2022, which residuals were only +6" mainly for Right Ascension with delta-T correction = -0.007 day. See the previous orbits in NK 3233 and NK 3987 and also NK 4815 for nucleus B. Epoch = 2022 Mar. 2.0 TT T = 2022 Feb. 20.67903 +/- 0.00070 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 46.99230 +/- 0.00022 Node = 199.81105 +/- 0.00007 (2000.0) Inc. = 14.32865 +/- 0.00002 q = 2.4496773 +/- 0.0000022 AU e = 0.2277358 +/- 0.0000008 a = 3.1720717 +/- 0.0000042 AU n' = 0.17445747 +/- 0.00000035 P = 5.650 +/- 0.0000113 years T = 2005 Mar. 15.91772 TT Epoch = 2005 Mar. 11.0 TT Peri. = 45.60854 e = 0.2359589 Node = 200.37529 (2000.0) a = 3.1612680 AU Inc. = 14.35621 n'= 0.17535255 q = 2.4153388 AU P = 5.621 years [ T = 2010 Nov. 1.11887 TT Epoch = 2010 Nov. 20.0 TT Peri. = 45.87892 e = 0.2348363 Node = 200.33172 (2000.0) a = 3.1621665 AU Inc. = 14.35330 n'= 0.17527783 q = 2.4195749 AU P = 5.623 years ] T = 2016 June 24.24100 TT Epoch = 2016 June 21.0 TT Peri. = 46.59366 e = 0.2282554 Node = 199.85591 (2000.0) a = 3.1720335 AU Inc. = 14.33008 n'= 0.17446062 q = 2.4479998 AU P = 5.649 years The predicted orbit for the 2027 return is as follows: T = 2027 Nov. 14.78520 TT Epoch = 2027 Nov. 11.0 TT Peri. = 50.40748 e = 0.2209329 Node = 198.73322 (2000.0) a = 3.1881836 AU Inc. = 14.19737 n'= 0.17313668 q = 2.4838088 AU P = 5.693 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2004/ 160508 H01 0.3- 0.2- 160731 Z18 0.5+ 0.2- 040620 703 0.6+ 0.6+ 160508 H01 0.5- 0.3+ 160804 568 0.4+ 0.1- 040620 703 1.5+ 0.5- 160508 H01 0.4- 0.0 160804 568 0.3+ 0.1- 040620 703 0.3+ 0.2+ 160508 H01 0.6- 0.1- 160804 568 0.4+ 0.1- 040620 703 0.5+ 0.0 160508 691 0.4- 0.0 160804 568 0.4+ 0.0 2016/ 160508 691 0.2- 0.1+ 160804 568 0.4+ 0.0 160304 F51 0.6- 0.1- 160508 691 (2.0- 0.9+) 160804 568 0.3+ 0.0 160304 F51 0.3- 0.1- 160511 568 0.3- 0.1- 160804 568 0.4+ 0.0 160403 F51 0.5- 0.2- 160511 568 0.2- 0.0 160804 568 0.4+ 0.0 160403 F51 0.6- 0.3- 160511 568 0.4- 0.0 2022/ 160403 F51 0.5- 0.3- 160511 568 0.3- 0.0 220313 568 0.7+ 0.2+ 160414 F51 0.7- 0.4- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.0 220313 568 0.8+ 0.2+ 160414 F51 0.5- 0.3- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.0 220408 568 0.5+ 0.2+ 160414 F51 0.2- 0.3- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.1- 220408 568 0.4+ 0.2+ 160416 F51 0.5- 0.4- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.1- 220408 568 0.4+ 0.3+ 160416 F51 0.5- 0.3- 160515 Z18 0.1- 0.1- 220408 568 0.4+ 0.2+ 160416 F51 0.3- 0.2- 160529 Z18 0.1- 0.0 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160505 F51 0.3- 0.0 160529 Z18 0.1- 0.0 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160505 F51 0.1- 0.1- 160529 Z18 0.1- 0.1- 220425 568 0.3+ 0.1+ 160505 F51 0.2- 0.1+ 160529 Z18 0.1- 0.0 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160505 F51 0.2- 0.1- 160529 Z18 0.1- 0.0 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 I52 1.3+ 0.5- 160606 695 0.2+ 0.3- 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 H06 0.2+ 0.4- 160607 695 0.1+ 0.4- 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 H06 0.2- 0.4+ 160608 G96 0.6+ 0.4- 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 H06 0.2- 0.9+ 160608 G96 0.5+ 0.7+ 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 I52 0.8+ 0.5+ 160608 G96 0.2+ 1.0+ 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 568 0.3- 0.1+ 160608 G96 0.1+ 0.4+ 220425 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 568 0.3- 0.1+ 160609 695 0.2- 0.0 220619 568 0.5- 0.2- 160506 568 0.3- 0.1+ 160611 695 0.1- 0.2- 220619 568 0.6- 0.2- 160507 568 0.2- 0.1+ 160612 695 0.1+ 0.1- 220619 568 0.5- 0.2- 160507 568 0.3- 0.1+ 160731 Z18 0.4+ 0.1- 220619 568 0.5- 0.1- 160507 568 0.2- 0.1+ 160731 Z18 0.4+ 0.1- 220619 568 0.5- 0.2- 160508 H01 0.5- 0.0 160731 Z18 0.5+ 0.1- 220619 568 0.5- 0.2- 160508 H01 0.4- 0.0 160731 Z18 0.5+ 0.1- 220619 568 0.5- 0.2- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Late edition Syuichi Nakano 2022 Aug. 19