Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 4815 P/PANSTARRS-B (2016 J1-B = 2004 Mx = 2022 Ey)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 60 observations 2004 to 2022. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.44 arc second. Residuals for the recovery observations were +140" for Right Ascension and +18" for Declination from the prediction in NK 3988 with the delta-T correction = -0.09 day. See the previous orbits in NK 3234 and NK 3988 and also NK 4814 for nucleus A (principal component and 2004 object). Epoch = 2022 Mar. 2.0 TT T = 2022 Feb. 20.81493 +/- 0.00091 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 47.07479 +/- 0.00027 Node = 199.80593 +/- 0.00010 (2000.0) Inc. = 14.32783 +/- 0.00003 q = 2.4495319 +/- 0.0000032 AU e = 0.2277641 +/- 0.0000011 a = 3.1719995 +/- 0.0000062 AU n' = 0.17446343 +/- 0.00000051 P = 5.649 +/- 0.0000166 years T = 2005 Mar. 16.24132 TT Epoch = 2005 Mar. 11.0 TT Peri. = 45.68539 e = 0.2359903 Node = 200.37161 (2000.0) a = 3.1611866 AU Inc. = 14.35545 n'= 0.17535933 q = 2.4151771 AU P = 5.621 years [ T = 2010 Nov. 1.36385 TT Epoch = 2010 Nov. 20.0 TT Peri. = 45.95609 e = 0.2348691 Node = 200.32801 (2000.0) a = 3.1620821 AU Inc. = 14.35254 n'= 0.17528484 q = 2.4194068 AU P = 5.623 years ] T = 2016 June 24.44405 TT Epoch = 2016 June 21.0 TT Peri. = 46.67597 e = 0.2282811 Node = 199.85080 (2000.0) a = 3.1719650 AU Inc. = 14.32925 n'= 0.17446627 q = 2.4478652 AU P = 5.649 years The predicted orbit for the 2027 return is as follows: T = 2027 Nov. 14.92284 TT Epoch = 2027 Nov. 11.0 TT Peri. = 50.50196 e = 0.2209900 Node = 198.72524 (2000.0) a = 3.1880945 AU Inc. = 14.19617 n'= 0.17314394 q = 2.4835575 AU P = 5.692 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2004/ 160508 H01 0.2- 0.3+ 160731 Z18 0.6+ 0.2- 040620 703 0.1- 0.5+ 160508 H01 0.2- 0.1- 160731 Z18 0.5+ 0.2- 040620 703 0.8+ 0.6- 160508 H01 0.2- 0.2- 160731 Z18 0.4+ 0.2+ 040620 703 0.4- 0.1+ 160511 568 0.3- 0.3+ 160731 Z18 0.4+ 0.1- 040620 703 0.2- 0.1- 160511 568 0.3- 0.0 160804 568 0.1- 0.3+ 2016/ 160511 568 0.2- 0.1+ 160804 568 0.1- 0.3+ 160304 F51(78.1- 5.5-) 160511 568 0.3- 0.1+ 160804 568 0.3- 0.4+ 160304 F51(77.8- 5.5-) 160515 Z18 0.3- 0.1+ 160804 568 0.4- 0.3+ 160414 F51 0.7+ 1.3- 160515 Z18 0.3- 0.2+ 160804 568 0.3- 0.3+ 160414 F51 0.0 0.5- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.1+ 160804 568 0.2- 0.3+ 160414 F51 0.5+ 1.5- 160515 Z18 0.1- 0.0 160804 568 0.2- 0.3+ 160414 F51 0.8+ 0.9- 160515 Z18 0.2- 0.0 160804 568 0.3- 0.3+ 160506 H06 (2.0- 0.8-) 160529 Z18 0.1+ 0.0 160804 568 0.0 0.3+ 160506 H06 1.6- 0.4- 160529 Z18 0.0 0.0 160804 568 0.3+ 0.2+ 160506 H06 1.6- 0.3- 160529 Z18 0.0 0.0 160804 568 0.2+ 0.2+ 160506 568 0.2- 0.2+ 160529 Z18 0.0 0.0 160804 568 0.5- 0.3+ 160506 568 0.2- 0.2+ 160529 Z18 0.0 0.0 160804 568 0.0 0.1+ 160507 568 0.3- 0.3+ 160606 695 0.6+ 0.4- 2022/ 160507 568 0.2- 0.1+ 160607 695 0.7+ 0.8- 220624 568 1.0+ 0.3+ 160507 568 0.2- 0.2+ 160609 695 0.4+ 0.4- 220707 568 0.3- 0.4- 160508 H01 0.4- 0.2+ 160611 695 0.6+ 0.6- 220707 I11 0.1- 0.2- 160508 H01 0.3- 0.1+ 160612 695 1.1+ 0.8- 220707 I11 0.3- 0.4- ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Late edition Syuichi Nakano 2022 Aug. 19