Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 5037 P/PANSTARRS (2015 T3 = 2023 M3)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 96 observations 2015 to 2023. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.58 arc second. Residuals for the recovery observations were -0.19 deg for Right Ascension and -0.05 deg for Declination from the prediction in NK 4409 (= CH 2023) with the delta-T correction = +0.58 day. The comet has passed 0.63 AU from Jupiter on 2003 Aug. 24 and will pass 0.28 AU from Jupiter on 2025 Dec. 24 UT. Also comet has passed 3.56 AU from Saturn on 1978 August. See the previous orbits in NK 3985, NK 4409 and CBET 5277 (same orbit). Epoch = 2023 May 16.0 TT T = 2023 May 3.64277 +/- 0.01324 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 196.69154 +/- 0.00592 Node = 119.87132 +/- 0.00088 (2000.0) Inc. = 12.23680 +/- 0.00019 q = 2.1546812 +/- 0.0000546 AU e = 0.4667373 +/- 0.0000136 a = 4.0405625 +/- 0.0001452 AU n' = 0.12135044 +/- 0.00000654 P = 8.122 +/- 0.0004379 years (+/- 0.16 day) T = 2015 Mar. 10.15371 TT Epoch = 2015 Feb. 27.0 TT Peri. = 196.60342 e = 0.4650167 Node = 119.89850 (2000.0) a = 4.0551675 AU Inc. = 12.22038 n'= 0.12069544 q = 2.1694469 AU P = 8.166 years The predicted orbit for the 2031 return is as follows: T = 2031 Feb. 4.36145 TT Epoch = 2031 Feb. 23.0 TT Peri. = 195.32745 e = 0.4289454 Node = 113.81311 (2000.0) a = 4.0415459 AU Inc. = 16.14343 n'= 0.12130614 q = 2.3079434 AU P = 8.125 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: 2015/ 151014 958 0.0 0.1- 230627 T12 0.0 0.1+ 150917 568 0.1- 0.1- 151015 W96 1.0- 1.0+ 230628 703 0.9+ 0.4+ 150917 568 0.1- 0.3- 151015 W96 0.8+ 0.6+ 230628 703 1.2- 0.6- 150922 W84 0.3- 0.4+ 151015 W96 (1.3- 3.1-) 230628 703 1.4- 0.8+ 150922 W84 0.2- 0.3- 151015 W96 0.7+ 0.9+ 230629 M21 0.1- 0.1- 150922 W84 0.4+ 0.0 151015 291 0.2- 0.5+ 230629 M21 0.1+ 0.1- 150922 W84 0.0 0.1- 151015 291 0.7- 0.2- 230629 X07 0.8+ 0.5+ 151004 W84 0.1- 0.1- 151015 291 0.3- 0.2+ 230629 X07 0.2- 0.4+ 151004 W84 0.1+ 0.2- 151015 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 230629 X07 0.1+ 0.1- 151004 W84 0.3- 0.3- 151015 F51 0.1- 0.2- 230629 X07 0.4+ 0.3- 151004 W84 0.3- 0.4- 151015 F51 0.2+ 0.2- 230629 T12 0.4+ 0.1- 151004 W84 0.2+ 0.1- 151015 474 0.9+ 0.5+ 230629 T12 0.5+ 0.2+ 151004 W84 0.5- 0.4+ 151015 474 0.4+ 0.2+ 230629 T12 0.3+ 0.2+ 151013 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 151015 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 230629 T12 0.2+ 0.3+ 151013 F51 0.1- 0.0 151015 474 0.4+ 0.3+ 230629 T12 0.9+ 0.0 151013 F51 0.4- 0.1+ 151015 474 1.5+ 0.3+ 230629 T12 0.4+ 0.4+ 151013 F51 0.3- 0.1- 151016 W96 0.0 0.0 230629 T12 0.2+ 0.3+ 151014 291 0.0 0.2+ 151016 W96 1.8+ 0.0 230629 T12 0.3+ 0.4+ 151014 291 1.6- 0.2+ 151017 W84 0.4- 0.1- 230701 M49 0.4+ 0.3+ 151014 568 0.0 0.2- 151017 W84 0.3- 0.3- 230701 M49 0.6+ 0.2+ 151014 568 0.1- 0.2- 151107 W84 0.4- 0.0 230701 703 0.0 0.3- 151014 568 0.1- 0.2- 151107 W84 0.4- 0.0 230701 703 0.1+ 1.1- 151014 Q62 1.4+ 1.6+ 2023/ 230701 703 0.5- 0.3- 151014 Q62 1.5+ 1.3+ 230622 703 0.1+ 0.3- 230701 703 1.0- 0.3- 151014 Q62 1.4+ 1.1+ 230622 703 0.3- 0.3+ 230702 M28 1.0- 0.3+ 151014 474 0.3+ 0.3- 230622 703 0.2- 1.7- 230702 M28 (3.0+ 1.3+) 151014 474 0.3+ 0.1- 230622 703 1.7- 0.9+ 230702 M28 (1.9- 3.6+) 151014 474 0.6+ 0.0 230626 G96 0.2- 0.2- 230702 X03 0.0 0.0 151014 474 0.5+ 0.1+ 230626 G96 0.2+ 0.2- 230702 X03 0.1+ 0.1- 151014 Q62 0.5+ 1.4+ 230626 G96 0.3+ 0.2+ 230702 X03 0.0 0.5- 151014 Q62 0.3+ 1.1+ 230626 G96 0.0 0.1- 230703 M49 0.6+ 0.2+ 151014 Q62 0.3+ 0.9+ 230627 C95 1.1- 1.4- 230703 M49 0.2+ 0.2+ 151014 958 0.5- 0.5+ 230627 C95 0.8- 1.6- 230703 M49 0.5+ 0.4+ 151014 958 0.7+ 0.9+ 230627 T12 0.0 0.1+ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2023 July 7