Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 5164 P/Hogan (2023 S4 (X5) = 2017 O4)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 120 observations 2005 to 2024. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.42 arc second. No close approach to Major planets, but comet has passed 0.08 AU from (1) Ceres on 2012 Dec. 22 UT. Epoch = 2023 Aug. 4.0 TT T = 2023 July 16.76712 +/- 0.00075 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 11.45139 +/- 0.00055 Node = 26.79277 +/- 0.00050 (2000.0) Inc. = 1.09786 +/- 0.00001 q = 2.5416089 +/- 0.0000014 AU e = 0.1890793 +/- 0.0000005 a = 3.1342264 +/- 0.0000026 AU n' = 0.17762681 +/- 0.00000022 P = 5.549 +/- 0.0000069 years T = 2006 Dec. 12.00569 TT Epoch = 2006 Dec. 11.0 TT Peri. = 13.46881 e = 0.1861814 Node = 26.92659 (2000.0) a = 3.1345326 AU Inc. = 1.10270 n'= 0.17760078 q = 2.5509408 AU P = 5.550 years [ T = 2012 June 26.48646 TT Epoch = 2012 July 12.0 TT Peri. = 13.18023 e = 0.1885194 Node = 26.90806 (2000.0) a = 3.1342109 AU Inc. = 1.10151 n'= 0.17762813 q = 2.5433515 AU P = 5.549 years ] T = 2018 Jan. 5.50886 TT Epoch = 2018 Jan. 2.0 TT Peri. = 12.41625 e = 0.1882315 Node = 26.77566 (2000.0) a = 3.1321835 AU Inc. = 1.09967 n'= 0.17780062 q = 2.5426081 AU P = 5.543 years The predicted orbit for the 2029 return is as follows: T = 2029 Jan. 27.84350 TT Epoch = 2029 Jan. 24.0 TT Peri. = 11.06146 e = 0.1872100 Node = 26.75623 (2000.0) a = 3.1333936 AU Inc. = 1.09638 n'= 0.17769763 q = 2.5467909 AU P = 5.547 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2005/ 210613 W84 0.1- 0.1+ 231217 I52 0.4- 0.1- 050614 T14 0.5- 0.2- 2023/ 231217 I52 0.3- 0.0 050614 T14 0.7- 0.2- 230818 F52 0.2+ 0.2+ 231217 I52 0.5- 0.2- 050615 T14 0.4- 0.2- 230818 F52 0.2- 0.1+ 231218 G00 0.5+ 0.1- 2017/ 230818 F52 0.3+ 0.1+ 231218 G00 1.0- 0.5+ 170717 T14 0.0 0.1+ 230818 F52 0.2- 0.1- 231218 G00 0.6- 0.0 170723 T14 0.2- 0.1+ 230824 F52 0.1+ 0.1+ 231219 X07 0.3- 0.0 170730 F51 0.0 0.2- 230824 F52 0.3- 0.0 231219 X07 0.0 0.0 170730 F51 0.2+ 0.2- 230824 F52 0.3+ 0.2+ 231219 L06 0.2- 0.3- 170730 F51 0.5+ 0.6+ 230925 G96 0.3- 0.3- 231219 L06 0.2- 0.2- 170917 F51 0.0 0.1+ 230925 G96 0.8- 0.1+ 231219 L06 0.1- 0.3- 170917 F51 0.2+ 0.3+ 230925 G96 1.4- 0.4- 231219 A77 0.0 0.6- 170917 F51 0.0 0.1+ 230925 G96 0.3- 0.8- 231219 A77 1.3- 1.2+ 170917 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 231022 F52 0.1+ 0.0 231219 587 0.1+ 0.1+ 170924 F51 0.1- 0.1- 231022 F52 0.0 0.0 231219 587 0.3- 0.1- 170924 F51 0.3- 0.0 231022 F52 0.2+ 0.1+ 231219 587 0.1- 0.0 170924 F51 0.1+ 0.1- 231022 F52 0.0 0.0 231220 W62 0.2- 0.1+ 170924 F51 0.1- 0.0 231108 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 231220 W62 0.1- 0.0 171011 F51 0.1+ 0.0 231108 F51 0.1+ 0.0 231220 W62 0.1- 0.1- 171011 F51 0.0 0.0 231108 F51 0.1+ 0.3+ 231230 J57 0.1- 0.0 171011 F51 0.0 0.2- 231204 F51 0.2+ 0.0 231230 J57 0.3- 0.3- 171011 F51 0.1- 0.0 231204 F51 0.1+ 0.0 231230 J57 0.3- 0.8- 171018 F51 0.0 0.2+ 231204 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 2024/ 171018 F51 0.2- 0.3+ 231204 F51 0.3+ 0.0 240101 F51 0.4+ 0.0 171018 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 231215 G96 0.1- 0.2+ 240101 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 171018 F51 0.2- 0.2- 231215 G96 0.0 0.2+ 240101 F51 0.4+ 0.0 171018 F51 0.2- 0.1- 231215 G96 0.6- 0.2- 240101 F51 0.3+ 0.2+ 171018 F51 0.3- 0.2+ 231215 G96 0.1- 0.3+ 240112 X03 1.0+ 0.5- 171023 F51 0.0 0.1- 231215 I52 0.4- 0.4- 240112 X03 1.7+ 0.1+ 171023 F51 0.2- 0.2- 231215 I52 0.2- 0.2+ 240112 X03 0.8+ 0.4+ 171023 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 231215 I52 0.3- 0.4- 240112 L01 0.4+ 0.1+ 171023 F51 0.3+ 0.0 231215 I52 1.0- 0.1- 240112 L01 0.7+ 0.3+ 171119 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 231215 F51 0.7- 0.4+ 240112 A77 0.6+ 0.8+ 171119 F51 0.1- 0.2- 231215 F51 0.7+ 0.1+ 240112 A77 0.1- 1.0+ 2019/ 231215 F51 0.2+ 0.0 240112 A77 1.2- 1.6+ 190105 F51 0.3+ 0.1- 231215 F51 0.3+ 0.0 240112 L01 0.1+ 0.0 190114 F51 0.1+ 0.1+ 231215 F51 0.3+ 0.3+ 240115 204 0.4+ 0.5+ 190114 F51 0.0 0.4+ 231215 F51 0.3+ 0.1- 240116 204 1.6+ 1.0+ 190114 F51 0.2- 0.3+ 231216 Y89 1.8+ 0.3+ 240117 V06 0.7+ 0.1- 190114 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 231216 Y89 1.4- 0.0 240117 V06 0.7+ 0.1- 2021/ 231216 Y89 0.3+ 0.1- 240117 V06 0.5+ 0.0 210613 W84 0.2+ 0.0 231217 I52 0.4- 0.4- 240117 V06 0.7+ 0.0 ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2024 Jan. 24