Nakano Note (Nakano wa Kangaeru noda) NK 5167 P/PANSTARRS (2015 HG16 = 2023 W2)
The following improved orbital elements, by S. Nakano, are from 57 observations 2015 to 2023. Perturbations by Mercury to Neptune and three minor planets, Ceres, Pallas and Vesta, were taken into account. The mean residual is +/- 0.76 arc second. Residuals for 2023 Nov. 19 observations were -274" for Right Ascension and -210" for Declination from the prediction in NK 4189 with the delta-T correction = +0.47 day. 2023 Nov. 17 observations might be a different object. The comet has passed 2.34 AU from Saturn on 2000 June 10 and 0.0664 AU from Jupiter on 2006 Nov. 12 UT. A past orbit was T= 2005 08 09, q= 4.859 AU, e= 0.380, Peri.= 129.8, Node= 62.8, i= 18.8, a= 7.837 AU, P= 21.9 years. See the previous orbits in NK 3093 and NK 4189. Epoch = 2024 Oct. 17.0 TT T = 2024 Oct. 16.58651 +/- 0.02152 (m.e.) TT Peri. = 46.74086 +/- 0.00194 Node = 57.05783 +/- 0.00023 (2000.0) Inc. = 19.00511 +/- 0.00011 q = 3.1234071 +/- 0.0000567 AU e = 0.3465579 +/- 0.0000100 a = 4.7799291 +/- 0.0001137 AU n' = 0.09431307 +/- 0.00000336 P = 10.450 +/- 0.0003729 years (+/- 0.14 day) T = 2014 June 29.00506 TT Epoch = 2014 July 2.0 TT Peri. = 48.15722 e = 0.3462740 Node = 59.52702 (2000.0) a = 4.7907102 AU Inc. = 18.86840 n'= 0.09399489 q = 3.1318120 AU P = 10.486 years The predicted orbit for the 2035 return is as follows: T = 2035 Mar. 22.49191 TT Epoch = 2035 Mar. 14.0 TT Peri. = 47.13920 e = 0.3463952 Node = 56.94364 (2000.0) a = 4.7690573 AU Inc. = 19.01037 n'= 0.09463576 q = 3.1170788 AU P = 10.415 years The following residuals in seconds of arc are from the above orbital elements: Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") Date Code Residual(") 2015/ 150424 F51 0.2- 0.2+ 180714 T05(17.8+ 14.5-) 150114 F51 1.9+ 0.3- 150424 F51 0.1- 0.3+ 180714 T05(20.2+ 14.8-) 150114 F51 2.1+ 0.4- 150424 F51 0.3- 0.4+ 180714 T05(23.3+ 14.9-) 150114 F51 1.7+ 0.6- 2016/ 2023/ 150114 F51 1.7+ 0.5- 160211 F51 0.1+ 0.5- 231117 W62(37.2- 13.3-) 150115 695 1.5+ 0.4- 160211 F51 0.4- 0.6- 231117 W62(37.6- 12.9-) 150115 695 1.6+ 0.7- 160211 F51 0.1+ 0.2- 231117 W62(38.0- 12.6-) 150324 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 160403 F51 1.1- 0.5- 231119 W62 2.2+ 1.3- 150324 F51 0.3+ 0.1+ 160403 F51 0.5- 0.7- 231119 W62 2.1+ 1.4- 150324 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 160403 F51 0.6- 0.8- 231119 W62 1.9+ 1.2- 150324 F51 0.5+ 0.1+ 160403 F51 0.2- 1.0- 231207 V00 0.5+ 0.7- 150409 F51 0.2+ 0.1- 160404 F51 0.6- 0.6- 231207 V00 0.2+ 0.6- 150409 F51 0.1+ 0.2+ 160404 F51 0.6- 0.7- 231207 V00 0.3+ 0.6- 150409 F51 0.3- 0.1+ 160404 F51 0.6- 0.5- 231207 V00 0.5+ 0.6- 150420 F51 0.1- 0.1+ 160404 F51 0.6- 0.4- 231208 F51 0.3+ 0.6- 150420 F51 0.1- 0.2+ 160406 568 0.5- 0.8- 231208 F51 0.5+ 0.6- 150420 F51 0.2- 0.1+ 160406 568 0.5- 0.9- 231208 F51 0.4+ 0.5- 150420 F51 0.2- 0.2+ 160406 568 0.4- 0.8- 231208 F51 0.5+ 0.4- 150421 F51 0.2+ 0.1+ 160409 Q62 1.2- 0.6- 231216 215 0.2+ 0.4- 150421 F51 0.4- 0.2+ 160409 Q62 1.5- 0.3- 231216 215 0.9+ 0.0 150421 F51 0.2- 0.2+ 160409 Q62 1.3- 1.0- 231216 215 1.2+ 1.0- 150421 F51 0.3- 0.3- 160722 W84 0.5- 1.2- 150424 F51 0.2- 0.3+ 2018/ ( ) -------- Rejected Obs.
Associate of the CBAT Syuichi Nakano 2023 Jan. 26